英倫金融：工作即將完成--行情走勢預測

週五並沒有出現令人驚喜的行情。出現的價格運行走勢事實上相當有建設性，但似乎不足以確認一個推動結構—只是奠定了潛在推動的基礎。亞盤的開場增加了多一些資訊，但仍然不足夠，市場甚至都還沒有接近首個反轉目標。這些首要反轉目標將可能觸發行情反轉—是否修正或者稍後確認更大級別的反轉。我真的不太確定本周會有一個特別果斷的行情開端。上周美元指數下跌過程中，並沒有出現看漲背離信號，即使在１小時級別裡也沒有出現，這是另一個保持謹慎態度的理由。
然而，就目前來講，美元指數似乎仍然指向上行方向。假如繼上週五後，價格後續維持在一個推動結構內運行，這將意味著出現價格修正，之後再延續原來的走勢方向發展。從這一點出發考慮，我們需要更多的價格運行表現來證實結果。因此，美元的自我表述是—除非有更強的催化激發走勢發展—否則我們需要承受緩慢而乏味的價格發展過程。
如說有較強發展潛能的貨幣對，那就要數歐元兌日元了，但更多的是要取決於美元兌日元的走勢發展情況。價格從110.66低點迅速反彈，但隨後陷入橫向整理狀態中。在整理範圍內運行並沒有進一步明確價格的發展方向。價格低位元伴隨著輕微的看漲背離信號出現，但信號還沒明確並且價格也有可能突破盤整區間（1小時級別）。會往哪一個方向結束區間盤整走勢目前還不得而知—但從歐元兌日元盤面來看，價格運行或會傾向於往更低點位發展…
如果有任何潛在的強那麼它可能是歐元兌日元，但在很大程度上將取決於美元兌日元。它尖刺從110.66的低點高出但隨後倒在了橫盤整理的範圍。這個範圍還沒有真正做了它的意圖聞名。低想出了一個邊際看漲背離，但沒有堅定而仍然可以看到一個（每小時）條漲勢範圍的突破。哪一端的範圍將突破仍是未知數 - 但從EURJPY，風險確實出現低...
不確定今天會否是一個特別有建設性走勢的一天，但在今天行情結束之前，我們將會得到更多的一些價格資訊.
祝交易順利。
伊恩•科普塞
英倫金融研究部高級顧問
國際貴金屬外匯波浪權威
原文：
Work to be done
Friday didn’t surprise. The moves that we have seen were actually quite constructive but not nearly enough to confirm an impulsive structure – but just laid the foundations of a potential impulse wave. This morning’s start has added a little more, but still not enough and the market hasn’t even reached close to catch a sniff the first reversal targets. Even these first reversal targets will likely trigger a reversal – whether corrective or later confirm a larger reversal. I’m really not that sure we’ll get a particularly decisive start to the week. That last week’s Dollar lows did not provide Dollar even hourly bullish divergences remains another reason to tread carefully.
However, for now, the Dollar appears to still be pointing to the upside. Assuming we do see follow-through from Friday within an impulsive structure it will at least imply a correction and then second follow-through. It will be at that point that we need a more resounding outcome confirmed. As such, it sounds that – unless some greater catalyst springs up out of the ether – that we’ll have to suffer some pretty slow and boring development.
If there is any stronger potential then it may be in EURJPY but much will depend on USDJPY. It spiked higher from the 110.66 low but then slumped into a sideways range. This range has not really made its intent known. The low came with a marginal bullish divergence, but nothing firm and could still see a break of the range of that one (hourly) bar rally. Which end of the range will break is still unknown – but from EURJPY, the risk does appear lower…
I cannot promise a particularly constructive day but by the end we’ll have a little more information.
Good trading
Ian Copsey