英倫金融：回歸常態--市場走勢預測

很顯然，上週五的非農就業資料公佈，基本上是一種兔子忽然被大頭燈燈光聚焦的樣子。沒有人真正想採取太多行動，直到資料公佈之後。數據有令人覺得驚喜之處嗎？略微有些吧…當考慮到價格的結構形態能有較強或較弱的投影目標時，這種情況可以接受。這次的資料公佈，令美股走勢發展到極限，但對外匯方面的影響較小。資料公佈後的價格走勢發展並不是我所預期的情況，但價格運行在限值範圍內。這意味著我們已處於一種需要美元展現自我意向的狀況。有些溫和的跡象表明，美元將重振上行走勢，雖然目前還沒有得到確認。
從技術上來講，有些反轉量能信號出現，同時4小時的價格均衡雲圖靠近美元價格頂部。這往往提示本周的交易是以平靜走勢拉開序幕。如美元恢復上漲走勢，那麼就需要亞盤時段展現較為中立均衡的運行狀況，最好是體現在歐元上—或者歐系貨幣的其他幣別—也允許價格均衡雲圖橫向運行。
在將出現的結果中，歐元兌日元的價格走勢裡有一個潛在提示。個人對該貨幣對持中立態度，意識到歐元兌美元運行到阻力位，同時美元兌日元未能體現太多的上漲幅度。從這個交叉情況考慮，價格走勢出現迴圈，意味著價格將會進一步下跌。在我看來，這意味著歐元兌美元也將選擇下行。
在我所跟進範圍內的貨幣對走勢，如果說有影響預期水準的，那麼就是澳元兌美元，該貨幣對價格走勢未能按預期反轉到顯著低點，並以上行到更高點位元的走勢情況來結束當天的行情。
因此，需要小心謹慎看待周初的行情發展，但在週末之前，我感覺我們會忘記所有在上週五出現的每月一次的市場動盪情況。
預祝擁有獲利豐厚的交易周
伊恩•科普塞
英倫金融研究部高級顧問
國際貴金屬外匯波浪權威
原文：
Back to normality
Clearly Friday’s NFP release was basically a case of a rabbit caught in headlights. No one really wants to do very much until the announcement is made. Did it surprise? Mildly… Whenever considering a structure there can be stronger or weaker projections that can be absorbed. In this case it pushed the U.S. equities to the extreme but in Forex but to a lesser extent. The post release development was not what I had wanted but was within the boundaries of the extremes. This means that we have been left in a situation where we need the Dollar to confirm its intentions. There are some modest signs that we should see the Dollar resume its rally although there has been no confirmation.
Technically, we have less than clean momentum reversal indications and 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds that capping the Dollar. This tends to point to a quiet start to the trading week. If we are to see the Dollar resume its uptrend then we need Asia to settle for neutrality and preferably for Europe – or part of the European session – also to allow the Price Equilibrium Clouds to move sideways.
There is one potential indication that we shall see this outcome and that is suggested in EURJPY. I have been relatively neutral on this pair, aware of the limited upside in EURUSD while USDJPY failed really to make much of a dent on the upside. From the cross, we have seen a recycling that suggests further losses. In my mind, this points to EURUSD opting for the downside.
If there is any detractor from the group of pairs I follow, then its in AUDUSD that failed to reverse lower significantly and ended the day moving higher and on bullish momentum.
Therefore, it looks like a cautious start to the week but by the end I feel we’ll have forgotten all about Friday’s monthly distraction.
Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey