英倫金融：非農資料公佈前市場走勢預測

是的，今天是非農日…而且資料公佈時間正好處於股票和外匯的關鍵時刻。當然，我們都知道資料公佈瞬間會引起價格運行混亂，我懷疑這就是我們今天將會看到的。即使出現了明顯的反轉信號，這個資料的公佈也可以令這些信號失效。最重要的是要知道看漲/看跌結構在哪裡被破壞。有些突破位是一個區間範圍，而有些是比較精准的點位。美股在多空兩個方向都有些較接近的突破位。
至於美元…並沒料想到昨日的走勢表現。也許是因為我對美元走弱的預期，但預期價格走弱僅是出現在價格創較高點之後出現。價格直接出現反轉令人覺得有點痛苦，但也把價格帶到我（最終）所預期的位置。價格走勢往往能較好地與更高級別的結構銜接，並穿插結合主要的美元貨幣對。現在我們只需要等待非農資料的公佈，之後就可以知道價格結構能否維持有效…
我傾向于看漲美元和看跌股市的結果。
歐系貨幣對，可能連同澳元，應該會一起行動，基本都會觸及到關鍵的突破區域。在這些區域附近有些價格緩衝空間，但總的來講，只要非農資料給予指引，就能找尋美元恢復漲勢的路徑。美元兌日元的走勢處於稍微不同的位置。價格反抽到較低位置，在非農資料公佈之前，更具備橫向整理走勢的指引性。我仍然認為該貨幣對需要進一步展開上行。
至於歐元兌日元，該貨幣對走勢情況可以為我們的研判提供線索，價格似乎會延續走高。我懷疑價格部分上漲幅度源自美元兌日元的走勢帶動。價格的運行發展可以觸發一些明顯的反復波動—可能會--也有可能不會…
總體而言，我們應會擁有一個相對安靜的一天，直到非農資料公佈 ......保重......
祝週末愉快。
伊恩•科普塞
英倫金融研究部高級顧問
國際貴金屬外匯波浪權威
原文：
Whips and lashes
Yes, it’s Non Farm Payroll day… and it comes at an interesting juncture in both Forex and Equities. Of course, we all know the release can generate absolute bedlam and I suspect that’s what we’ll get. Even if there are great reversal indications, this report can blast them out of the market. The most important issue is understanding where a bullish/bearish structure breaks. Some break levels can have wide ranges while others are pretty precise. U.S. equities have some close levels on both sides of the market.
As for the Dollar… well, I didn’t anticipate what happened yesterday. Maybe I did because I had expected the Dollar to weaken but only after a minor new Dollar high. That it reversed directly was a bit of a pain but brings us to where I had (eventually) expected. It tends to slot in well with the higher degree structure and across all the major Dollar-currency pairs. We now just need to wait for the NFP release to let us know whether the structure holds or not…
My favoured outcome is Dollar bullish and Equity bearish.
The European currencies and probably Aussie should all move together having generally reached key barriers. There is room for a cushion around these areas but overall, as long as the NFP dictates, I do look for the Dollar to resume gains. USDJPY is in a slightly different position. The pullback lower yesterday is more indicative of a sideways range ahead of the NFP. I still feel this pair needs to extend gains.
As for EURJPY, as this could provide us with clues, it appears set to move higher. I suspect some of the gains will be driven by USDJPY. The release can obviously trigger some volatility that may – or may not – help…
Overall, we should have a relatively quiet day until NFP… Take care…
Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey