英倫金融：市場震盪運行—行情走勢預測

市場決定不打亂歐系貨幣對的深度回檔走勢，並跟隨其運行步調。這應該是今天行情走勢發展的主題，但我懷疑其運行會持續更長時間…除非市場轉換慢動作模式。這些情況或會可能觸及2周前設定的目的地區域。這會引起某程度的震盪整固走勢發展，但基本上從稍大一些級別的框架來看，仍是美元看跌的基調。更重要的是，可能將會有重複的情況出現—某些程度的延展，但以結構較為簡單的走勢步入5月的時光。
昨日對英鎊兌美元進行分析，對初期的分析情況略感驚訝，意識到完整的修正走勢應該是怎麼樣的。其震盪走勢或會延續，但早上價格運行上觸1.4458高位的表現令人覺得意外—坦白說走勢看起來不符合邏輯。價格結構被打破後我制定了另外一個替換方案，但需要下一個價格破位元表現來印證…
澳元延續下跌的走勢情況符合預期。價格仍會出現進一步下行但似乎下方可操作空間不大。謹慎看待行情的發展…
至於美元兌日元…延續一個更大級別的，穩定的盤整區間走勢，價格震盪運行創出過去兩周以來的新高，其背後有因素助推價格加速反彈。這明顯帶動了歐元兌日元的同步運行。似乎有更多的價格發展空間，但週末或只允許其背後推動因素稍微有些喘息機會，意味著在展開下一步運行之前將出現較為深度的反抽。歐元兌日元，美元兌日元和歐元兌美元之間的平衡，將保持良好，但或能提供一些價格運行的線索。因此，不要期待出現一個完全重複的週五行情…
預祝擁有獲利豐厚的交易周。
伊恩•科普塞
英倫金融研究部高級顧問
國際貴金屬外匯波浪權威
原文：
Hip-hop Swingers
The market decided not to bother with a deeper correction in the Europeans and just to follow-through. This should be the main theme for today but I doubt it will last for too long… unless the market goes into slow motion. These two look like reaching the targets I set around 2 weeks ago. This has generated a kinda swinging consolidation but still basically Dollar bearish when looking at the larger picture. What’s more, we’re probably going to see a repeat – to a certain extent but just shallower later on into May.
I worked through the analysis in GBPUSD yesterday and, while initially surprised, I realised I had found what should have been a completed correction. The swings may well continue here but this morning’s break above 1.4458 has come as a surprise – and frankly doesn’t look logical. Having seen the structure break down I have provided an alternative but this needs to be ratified by the next break levels…
The Aussie extended losses as expected. It can still see more of the downside but appears to have limited room for manoeuvre. Watch out for that…
As for USDJPY… well, following a largely steady swing higher over the past two weeks, someone pushed a stake up its backside that accelerated the recovery. This obviously dragged EURJPY along with it. There appears to be room for more of this but the weekend allowed the sore backside to take a rest and it suggests a slightly deeper pullback before making the next step. The balance between EURJPY, USDJPY and EURUSD is going to be fine dance but could provide us with some clues. Therefore, don’t expect an exact repeat of Friday…
Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey