英倫金融：市場延續早期的整固走勢風險—行情走勢預測

昨天的市場交易比較難操作。特別是歐系貨幣對和澳元—連帶影響歐元兌日元的價格運行。目前這些貨幣對走勢正處於一個反復，並且比較脆弱的整固走勢發展階段，看情況似乎至少會延續到歐盤交易時段。或許最好先讓市場自我發揮，然後嘗試從中尋找一些感覺和線索，直到價格出現破位。在價格整固區間兩個方向都會有些緩衝，價格會觸及到這些緩衝地帶，但仍會維持在較高級別的結構中運行。因此，追隨破位元走勢情況。
同時，英鎊兌美元的走勢發展符合預期，出現較大幅度的修正。價格需要下行到昨天報告裡強調的下一個目標。
澳元的走勢發展與預期有些差距，價格運行出現更大幅度的回抽，現在令其結構變得複雜。價格走勢傾向於反復出現這種狀況…實際上，也很經常發生。價格的走勢方向今天或會更明朗一些，並延續運行，符合潛在預期情況。走勢發展將會改變投影目標，但不會給大週期結構帶來真正影響。
美元兌日元昨天的價格運行表現有點令人討厭，價格先是在早盤時段出現較猛烈的下探，並觸及到極限回撤位元，這種情況偶爾也會發生，但價格隨後並沒有真正往下運行到112.15。由此需要價格運行到較大的投影目標，以觸及同樣的價格目的地區域。價格量能狀況展示良好，但會時不時受到一些溫和的深度修正走勢的挑戰。很明顯，美元兌日元的走勢發展帶動了歐元兌日元往較高點位運行—僅比預期值稍高的位置—但這是非常複雜的聯動震盪下行的關鍵因素。我們希望，從這個價格位置開始，價格運行會有更好的進展，但需要關注過程中潛在衝突的出現。
祝交易順利。
伊恩•科普塞
英倫金融研究部高級顧問
國際貴金屬外匯波浪權威
原文：
Continued risk of early consolidation
Yesterday’s trading was a pretty messy affair. This was seen particularly in the two Continental Europeans and Aussie – and to an extent in EURJPY. Currently there is a gnarled and fragile consolidation developing in these pairs that look like extending into European trading at least. It will probably be better to let the market play around with this than try and make too much sense out of it until we begin to see a break. There are buffers around each side of the consolidation into which price can reach but maintain the higher degree structure. Thus, follow the break.
Meanwhile, GBPUSD was expected to see a deep recovery and this has occurred. This should be followed by losses to the next target highlighted in yesterday’s report.
The Aussie didn’t develop quite as expected, seeing a deeper pullback that now complicates its structure. It tends to do that from time to time… actually, quite often. It should resolve itself today and likely extend its move and still in line with the underlying expectation. It will alter the projection targets but shouldn’t cause any real issues in the larger picture.
USDJPY was a bit of a nasty chap yesterday with the sharp dip in early trading to an extreme retracement that occasionally happens but it didn’t really need to move down to the 112.15 level. All it has caused is a stronger projection to be required to reach the same targets. Momentum appears to be positive but will be challenged at time with some modestly deep corrections. Clearly, it drove EURJPY higher – just above where I thought it would stall – but was a factor of a really complicated set of ratcheting swings on the way down. Hopefully, from this point it can begin to make better progress but there are some potential conflicts so do take care
Good trading
Ian Copsey