英倫金融：歐盟時刻—行情走勢預測

全球市場似乎在回避與歐盟相關的事情。Christine Lagarde的影響難以鼓舞人心，我們也越來越接近下周退歐公投的時間。全球股票市場疲弱，並普遍預期世界經濟將面臨衝擊，這是一個嚴峻的考驗。
歐元兌美元未能展開進一步上行，英鎊兌美元短暫嘗試展開反彈修復無效後，稍後甚至跌破了1.4114低位。價格走勢情況很難展現令人振奮的預期，令我覺得意外, 價格展開更深度回檔的預期傾向每次都受到打壓。雖然總體來講行情看上去不會出現太多的上行走勢…但話雖如此，有些貨幣對的價格運行也來到了結束浪的關鍵位置，所以我們需要對美元的一些潛在下跌走勢做準備—但坦白來講，相對于歐系貨幣對，市場很明顯渴望推動美元往更高點位運行。這種情況甚至也適用於澳元。
同時，日元貨幣對也延續跌勢—美元兌日元跟隨美元的下跌趨勢，而歐元兌美元的走勢也推動歐元兌日元的持續下行。坦率地說，價格走勢看起來意味著趨勢會延續，即便價格運行在猶豫之間以8個點的差距下破前期低點105.54.
所以，我們正見證著一些有趣的時刻…如所有的一起都失效，那麼就買入美元，但要小心美元兌日元的走勢發展…
祝交易順利。
伊恩•科普塞
英倫金融研究部高級顧問
國際貴金屬外匯波浪權威
原文：
That EEEEE-u moment
The world’s markets are shunning anything to do with the EU it seems. The Christine Lagarde development is hardly encouraging any sympathy as we approach the Brexit referendum next week. Global stock markets have weakened and the general expectation of a larger fall-out for the world’s economy does seem to be a stark threat.
EURUSD failed to make any further gains and even GBPUSD broke below the 1.4114 low after a brief attempt at a recovery. It’s hardly an encouraging outlook and has surprised me – my preference for a deeper pullback have been stifled each time. It certainly doesn’t look like we’re going to see much upside, if at all… Having said that, there are a few pairs that reached key ending waves so we do need to give respect to the potential for some Dollar downside movement – but frankly the market is very obviously hungry to keep pressing the Dollar higher against the Europeans. This is even applicable to the Aussie.
Meanwhile, the JPY pairs also extended losses – USDJPY appearing to follow the Dollar losses while EURUSD also pressures EURJPY to the downside also. Frankly, it looks like we’ll see that trend continue even if the market baulked breaking the 105.54 low by just 8 points.
So, we are witnessing some interesting times … If all else fails, buy Dollars but take care in USDJPY…
Good trading
Ian Copsey