英倫金融：市場運行漸趨平靜--行情走勢預測

昨天美元兌日元的運行情況，是以1個點之差上破前期高點111.86，隨後直接展開斷崖式下跌。價格如蹦極跳般的快速下跌，以至於都還沒來得及去關注雙頂形態的出現。然而，當下的價格低點已在之前的走勢行情裡出現過—或許再輕微下破---允許價格在今天接下來的時間裡出現輕微反彈。當然，這行情表現意味著黃金周的開始—我對這幾天的價格突破運行情況感到滿意—因此市場的運行會在接下來幾天裡逐步放緩，或者以更慢的速度運行發展。歐元兌日元的運行情況明顯受美元兌日元所牽動，結合歐元兌美元出現的預期上行情況，幾乎也呈現出令人驚喜的走勢狀況，後續價格運行或會延續原來的路徑。
歐系貨幣走勢起伏不定，懷疑會出現一定程度的加速運行—但不會太多—以維持美元的下行走勢步入週末和週一，進入5月的時間週期。在經過過去一年的日內橫向整固走勢後，接下來的2-3周的時間裡，行情發展會變得更有趣些。股票市場也會出現類似信號，並且我個人感覺在總體市場的大環境下，還需要鍛煉一下我們的耐心。
澳元幾天前的快速下跌已基本打住，運行情況基本符合預期，之後應會呈現向上的運行走勢，但走勢會比較反復。可能最好的方式是觀察當下的價格運行情況並等待合適的時機入場。澳元的修正走勢或會比較迅猛…
採取穩健而淡定的交易方式，因為很快就要步入週末了。
祝交易順利。
伊恩•科普塞
英倫金融研究部高級顧問
國際貴金屬外匯波浪權威
原文：
Calming down…
The story of yesterday was the 1-point break above the prior 111.86 high and a walk off the cliff face. As it dropped it didn’t even have time to notice that there was a double top as the bungee rope uncoiled. However, we should have seen the current low – or maybe a minor breach – to allow the rest of the day to urge it gently higher. Of course, it’s the start of Golden Week – of which I have pleasant memories of a few days break – and therefore the market here should slow down over the next few days and probably a bit more. That EURJPY was obviously dragged down with USDJPY can hardly be a surprise with EURUSD expected to make upward headway, we are likely to see the cross recover along the way.
The Europeans have seen some choppy behaviour but I suspect a degree of acceleration – not too much – to maintain the Dollar downside as we go into the weekend and on Monday come out into May. These next 2-3 weeks are going to be interesting following the past year’s sideways daily consolidation. The signs are that in the equity markets also and I feel we’ll need to exercise some patience within the general market overall.
The Aussie’s sharp losses over the past couple of days have stalled as expected and should make upward headway but in a rather erratic manner. It’s probably best to just observe for now and wait for the right moment to re-enter the market. In corrections the Aussie can be brutal…
Steady but slow trading as we go into the weekend.
Good trading
Ian Copsey