英倫金融： 市場波動--行情走勢預測

行情走勢發展將不會有什麼驚喜之處出現吧？！是這樣嗎？今天是非農日…市場將會出現12個小時的枯燥無聊行情，然後出現大概10分鐘左右的騷動。我總在最近這幾天裡尋找價格形態，以契合之前預期的運行結構。伴隨過多的價格重疊，短暫穿刺式波動的運行狀況出現，最近的價格運行結構顯得很複雜，較難確定哪些短暫穿刺式波動是重要的價格運行行為。
同樣地，在較大級別的結構裡，感覺在價格反轉區內能提供趨勢性運行指引。值得慶倖的是，延續昨日美元走強的狀況，可以持續關注之前提示的價格區域。很明顯，接下來的行情發展顯得很重要，價格需要在這些潛在反轉區域進一步發展，以接近合適的投影比例，今天的行情表現似乎有一定可行性。
昨日英鎊兌美元走勢維穩，逆歐系貨幣的發展方向，轉頭略向上並似乎決定無所作為，這也是對我昨天所擬定的調整結構最理想的反應。但仍存在潛在風險，應該是非農資料公佈之後，價格才能走出明確方向，然後將會跟隨歐系貨幣對的發展步調。
同樣地，澳元昨天的走勢發展也是懶洋洋的狀態，價格窄幅波動，以便消化非農資料公佈的影響。價格的發展更多地取決於在接下來的10-12個小時內的運行情況。價格自0.7718下跌，欠缺一定程度的修正，增加了潛在的複雜性，不好明確浪i浪ii的位置。沒有明確浪i浪ii，就沒有合適的方式來明確後續的浪iii浪iv…但是，在更大級別的結構裡，確實有指示主要的價格發展方向…
美元兌日元昨天休息了一整天。畢竟這是黃金周的最後一天了。從這一點上看，價格走勢發展並沒有真正改變。我有設定關鍵支撐區域，並有其他備選突破區域。如參照歐元兌美元的走勢預期來看，也能推測出歐元兌日元的預期走勢方向。交叉貨幣對在上升與下行之間展現了很好的平衡，
這個平衡很重要…
最好等待非農資料公佈後，價格運行趨於平穩後，注意是否有關鍵點位被突破，然後關注目標區間內那些契合預期發展的價格運行情況，相信對於結果的發展將會有更明確的想法。
祝週末愉快。
伊恩•科普塞
英倫金融研究部高級顧問
國際貴金屬外匯波浪權威
原文：
Volatility
It won’t be a surprise, will it? It’s NFP day… 12 hours of numbing boredom and 10 minutes of bedlam day. I always approach these days looking for a pattern that will fit within the structures I have. Recently, I have found the structures really complicated with too many overlaps and minor blips that make it difficult to be certain of which minor blip was the most important. Equally, given the larger wave degree structure, we can get a sense of reversal areas that can provide the next trending move. Thankfully, following yesterday’s Dollar strength in the Continental Europeans, we are looking at the areas I have been suggesting. Obviously, it’s going to be important that these potential reversal areas need to be approached with the right projection ratios, but it’s looking doable today.
That GBPUSD turned up its nose to the Continentals and decided to take a sleepy day off instead, was a perfect response also to the adjustment I made yesterday in the structure. It could still be under risk, but should the NFP release provide the right outcome it will work well with the Continentals.
Equally, the Aussie had a languid day of shallow swings that should be able to absorb the impact of the NFP release. Much will depend on how it moves over the next 10-12 hours. That the sudden drop from 0.7718 lacked any decent corrections adds to potential complications when the identification of the Wave i and Wave ii was impossible. Without those there is no real way to identify the subsequent Wave iii and Wave iv… However, the larger degree structure does have a main direction…
USDJPY had a day off. After all, it was the last day of Golden Week. Nothing has really changed at this point. I have the key areas that need to hold and the alternatives should that area break. If I look at the expectations in EURUSD post release, we also have an idea of where EURJPY will go. The cross is finely balanced between upside and down so this balance will be crucial…
Best wait for the gyrations following the NFP release and note whether one scenario has broken or not and then watch for the most appropriate outcome from the areas I’ll provide that will give a stronger idea to the outcome.
Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey