留意黄金、原油偷步发力

  
Last week, due to the holidays in Europe and the United States, there was a lack of significant market news. Assets such as gold, silver, and oil mostly fluctuated within a narrow range within the Bollinger Bands. However, geopolitical tensions were simmering beneath the surface. The conflict in Ukraine continued unabated, and the situations in the Middle East and Syria remained tense. Although the limited funds during the holidays didn't fully reveal the impact, the atmosphere of tension was already building up.
 
At the beginning of 2025, funds flowed back into the market, and gold and crude oil became popular. Their prices rose simultaneously on the first day, putting non-US assets under pressure. Gold prices received multi-faceted support: The upcoming Chinese Spring Festival was warming up the gold-buying trend, leading to a growing demand; frequent geopolitical conflicts greatly increased the demand for safe-haven assets, making gold and crude oil havens; at the start of the year, in view of the possibility that Trump might return to the White House and suppress non-US assets, active funds shifted their investments to gold for hedging. Moreover, the market expected that central banks might increase their gold holdings. Coupled with the approaching Spring Festival, the support for gold prices was further strengthened.
 
The inauguration of Trump on January 20th is the biggest variable. His new policies are unclear, putting non-US assets under pressure. The congressional re-elections in France, Germany, and Canada also added uncertainties, causing fluctuations in the euro and the Canadian dollar. If the dollar and the yields on US Treasury bonds rise later, gold prices may experience a correction.
 
Currently, the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the interest rate unchanged at its meeting at the end of January. Many non-US central banks tend to cut interest rates, and Japan's interest rate hikes are restricted by data. For the time being, the US dollar is in a dominant position. However, Trump's policies are unpredictable, and the remarks made by him or the US Treasury Secretary at the Davos Forum will attract much attention. If any remarks involve a weakening US dollar, the trends of the US dollar and gold prices will change.
 
This week, the US non-farm payrolls data will be released, and inflation data from non-US countries will also pour in. If the non-farm payrolls data shows a slowdown in employment, with the number of jobs dropping to 200,000 and the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, gold prices are expected to rise. This is because gold is closely related to the US economy, and the market will expect the Federal Reserve to accelerate interest rate cuts. However, the deviation rate of the non-farm payrolls data exceeds 50%. There is a possibility of either a sharp drop or a sharp rise. Investors need to make flexible decisions based on the results, closely monitor the minutes of the Federal Reserve's meeting, and guard against the impact of hawkish hints of interest rate hikes on gold prices.
 
留意黄金、原油偷步发力
 
上周，欧美假期让市场消息清淡，金、银、油等资产多在布林带区间窄幅波动。但地缘政治暗流涌动，乌克兰冲突不止，中东、叙利亚局势紧绷，虽假期资金少未使影响全然显现，紧张氛围已在积聚。
 
2025 年开场，资金回流，黄金、原油受捧，首日价格齐升，非美资产承压。金价获多维支撑：中国春节购金潮预热，需求渐旺；地缘冲突频发，避险需求大增，黄金、原油成避风港；年初主动型基金鉴于特朗普可能返白宫、打压非美资产，转投黄金避险。且市场预期央行或增持，叠加春节临近，金价支撑加固。
 
1 月 20 日特朗普上台是最大变数，新政不明，非美资产承压，法、德、加国会改选也添不确定性，欧元、加元面临波动。若后续美元、美债息率走高，金价或回调。
 
当下，美联储 1 月底会议料维稳利率，非美央行多有降息趋向，日本加息受数据制约，美元暂处强势。不过，特朗普政策难测，达沃斯论坛上其或财长言论备受关注，若涉弱美元，美元、金价走势将改写。
 
本周，美国非农就业数据将公布，非美国家通胀数据也纷至沓来。非农若显示就业放缓，职位降至 20 万、失业率升至 4.3%，金价有望上行，因黄金与美经济关联紧密，市场将预期美联储加速降息。但非农数据偏差率超五成，骤降或骤升均有可能，投资者需依结果灵活决策，紧盯美联储会议纪要，防范鹰派加息暗示冲击金价。
 
By Wayne Lai
 
A senior financial practitioner in Hong Kong. He has served well-known financial public relations firms, financial media, and investment banks. Past service targets include Societe Generale, CMC Markets, KVB Kunlun, etc. At the same time, he is a part-time lecturer at colleges and universities, a regular guest of financial media, and an author of financial readings. He has represented Hong Kong to attend world financial forums many times. Currently, he is the research and marketing director of Royal Capital. Over the years, he has won multiple industry awards for service institutions.
 
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