英倫金融：走勢延續還是出現回檔—市場行情預測

美元指數終於展現了良好的上行走勢—主要體現在歐系貨幣對當中，同時也體現在美元兌日元的走勢當中。一旦這些貨幣對當中有某個貨幣對的價格運行遠離了4小時級別的均衡雲圖，將面臨上方若干個阻力壓制。有機會我們會看到類似昨天的情況出現，雖然在小時圖級別出現些美元看跌背離的發展信號。這使兩大歐系貨幣對基本處於前兩周我所指出的目標軌跡上運行。最好在今天的交易時段初期保持謹慎態度，並關注價格維持原走勢運行的確認信號。
這個情況同樣適用于美元兌日元，價格運行衝破上方壓制109.90。考慮到價格從113.80高位展現的較深度下跌，風險程度比歐系貨幣更勝一籌。然而，價格運行的限制也是因為受歐元兌美元的運行情況影響。交叉貨幣對目前處於橫向整理過程，維持窄幅震盪。有幾個突破走勢的方式，所以重要的是要嚴守交易紀律並關注潛在的區間突破情況…
歐系貨幣對和美元兌日元的走勢發展情況，似乎令英鎊兌美元的運行有些滯緩。當然，行情進展是顯得有些雜亂並傾向於以複雜的方式運行。價格發展有挑戰過4小時的價格均衡雲圖但未能成功，並沒有明顯突破下方支撐1.4196，在價格未能突破下方支撐之前，仍存在橫向走勢發展的風險。這需要多留意後續的發展情況。
澳元幾乎觸及了0.7723高位，在相差8個點左右的位置展開下跌。這符合了我所關注的第二個備選預期，今天的價格運行傾向於進一步下行。價格的發展或傾向符合預期情況—但也需要關聯考慮歐元兌美元的情況。
今天行情仍存有風險，價格走勢或不會像昨天那麼直接。需要謹慎看待行情的發展。
祝交易順利。
伊恩•科普塞
英倫金融研究部高級顧問
國際貴金屬外匯波浪權威
原文：
Follow-through or pullback?
At long last we have seen good progress on the Dollar upside – mainly between the Continental Europeans but also in USDJPY. Once each of these pairs had pulled away from the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds there were few barriers to the upside. There’s every chance that we could see a similar outcome today although there are some signs in the hourly charts of Dollar bearish divergences developing. This keeps the two Europeans basically on track for the targets I have indicated for the past week. Best take care at the start of the day and look for confirmation of any follow-through.
This process can also be applied to USDJPY also, freed from the constraints having broken above the 109.09 high. Considering the sharp nature of the losses from the 113.80 high there’s every risk of this being a little more aggressive than the Europeans. However, there are constraints here also because we have EURUSD to manage also. The cross is in a sideways consolidation but within a pretty narrow range. There are several ways this can pan out so it will be important to be disciplined and be aware of and potential break from the range…
With all the movement in the Continental Europeans and USDJPY, it seemed to make GBPUSD drowsy. Certainly, the development has been a bit haphazard and that tends to complicate the outcome. It has challenged the 4-hour Price Equilibrium but has failed to make any significant break below 1.4196 and until it does manage a stronger break lower there is still some risk of sideways consolidation. This needs a little care.
The Aussie almost reached the 0.7723 high, falling short by 8 points. This satisfies the second alternative of the two options I was looking at and as such tends to suggest we shall see further losses today. There is a range in which it can stall and tends to match with the target expectation – and also correlating with EURUSD.
There’s a risk that today will not be quite as direct as yesterday. More care required.
Good trading
Ian Copsey