英倫金融：美元走勢的幾率偏向—市場行情預測

上週五的走勢情況確實有點棘手。我曾希望美元能持續上行但也知道在最壞的情況下也有回落的空間，美元重回更加弱勢的狀態。市場似乎已經試探了這個潛在可能情況，或許是為了避免做出更明確的意向表述，然而，其中有一個貨幣對的發展情況或能提示更加明朗的下一步走勢會否是看漲美元—這就是英鎊兌美元。我或許也會參考美元兌瑞士法郎的走勢情況，該貨幣對逆反美元的下跌趨勢運行，甚至創出5個點差距的新高。
因此，本周開篇應會先以美元看漲的一天展開，並應能最終運行到我上周預期的目的地區域。
這可能對澳元兌美元的走勢帶來幫助，如上週五所述，該貨幣對的走勢超出了結構預期範圍令我頗感意外—價格反彈到0.7736點位，這是距離我的預期潛在目標相差一個點的位置。週五的橫向震盪整理走勢並未能引起任何決定性的破位行情出現，但只要延續美元預期走強的方向，其運行情況會逐步往我的首選預期靠攏。但是，仍有些有待解答的問題，因此仍存在不確定因素。
我在日元貨幣對上遇到些阻礙，但並不算嚴重，並且我意識到了自己在其結構上的失誤點，一個在美元兌日元上比較常見的，略大一點級別的延展回撤因素。這有助於歐元兌日元展開進一步下行，但未能運行到122.53低點。這應會引發關係其中的貨幣對上漲，意味著美元兌日元的走勢將領先歐元兌美元…
市場仍處於平靜期，所以最好是保持短期的預期展望。
預祝擁有獲利豐厚的交易周。
伊恩•科普塞
英倫金融研究部高級顧問
國際貴金屬外匯波浪權威
原文：
Odds favour the Dollar
Indeed, Friday was a little tricky. I had hoped for Dollar gains but knowing there was room for a pullback and in the worst scenario, a return to a much weaker Dollar. The market appears to have probed this potential, perhaps to avoid actually making a more decisive statement of intent. However, across the pairs there was one pair that probably made it clear that the next move had to be Dollar bullish – and that was GBPUSD. I could perhaps also add USDCHF that bucked the Dollar bearish trend and even made a new high by 5 points.
Thus, we should begin the week with a Dollar bullish day that should go on to eventually meet the target areas I set last week.
This may help out with AUDUSD that, as I described on Friday, gave me a strange surprise that I hadn’t expected due to the structure – the rally to 0.7736 was one point from a potential target I had identified. Friday’s neutral sideways move failed to generate any decisive break but as long as it follows the expected Dollar strength would tend to suit my preference. However, there remains some questions that have been left unanswered and therefore the air of uncertainty remains.
In the JPY pairs I suffered a set back, but nothing too serious and I identified my error in the structure, a factor of a mildly larger expansion-retracement that I normally see in USDJPY. This helped EURJPY to extend losses but failing to reach the 122.53 low. This should trigger gains in the cross that implies that USDJPY will outpace EURUSD…
The market is still in a lull period so best retain a short-term outlook.
Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey