英倫金融：穩定交易--行情走勢預測

穩定交易--行情走勢預測
昨天的行情並沒有出現太大的驚喜。市場才剛剛開始平復繼歐央行聲明之後的緊張神經，或許仍需要多一天左右的時間，以便更明確的結果發展。從我的角度來看，重要的是確保形態結構的發展，以及如何令較高較低級別的浪型整合起來。昨天的情況較為明顯，相比歐系貨幣美元兌瑞士法郎和英鎊兌美元，美元的上行幅度較大。或許還不是特別明顯，但考慮到這些價格運行表現將透過投影比例被進一步放大，總體而言指向一個更加弱勢的歐元兌美元走勢發展。
話雖如此，我並不真正認為今天會出現一個加速發展的行情，更可能的情況是出現類似昨日的盤面走勢情況。但是，應小心今天之後（預期）價格隨後出現反抽。甚至在英鎊兌美元方面會出現走勢放緩的風險—雖然在價格破位下行之前並沒有太多的運行空間。這在某些貨幣對之間是相當不尋常的關係，甚至澳元兌美元，此時仍沒看出準備進一步下行的跡象。因此，我並不會感到意外如澳元兌美元今天出現上漲的情況。
日元貨幣對出現下跌走勢符合預期。價格的下跌並沒有什麼特別之處，但實際上提供了發展的基礎。我懷疑這些貨幣對現在將會尋求下行發展，但我們必須要等待，並觀察價格走勢發展如何變的更堅定和有建設性。歐元兌日元會進一步下行，同時也需要價格修正，目前看價格修正不會有太大幅度。
今天的行情發展應該是穩定的……
祝交易順利。
伊恩•科普塞
英倫金融研究部高級顧問
國際貴金屬外匯波浪權威
原文：
Steady trading
No great surprises yesterday. The market is only just beginning to calm its frayed nerves following the ECB announcement and this will probably still need another day or so for a more definitive outcome develops. From my perspective it’s all a matter of making sure of the structures and how they integrate through the lower and higher wave degrees. It was particularly noticeable yesterday that the Dollar made more gains against the Euro compared with USDCHF and GBPUSD. Perhaps that’s not particularly significant but considering these moves will be amplified through the projection ratios it points to a much weaker EURUSD overall.
Having said that, I’m not really expecting any real acceleration today but more likely a similar day to yesterday. However, we shall have to watch out for a pullback following today’s (expected) follow-through. There is even a risk of GBPUSD baulking the trend – although there’s not any room before it is at risk of breaking down. Such is the rather unusual relationships between some of these pairs that even AUDUSD does not yet look ready to see further losses at this time. Thus, it would not surprise me to see AUDUSD making gains today.
The JPY pairs managed to see losses as I had expected. There was nothing outstanding about the decline but has actually provided a base to build on. I suspect both of these pairs will be looking to the downside now but we’ll have to wait and see how robust and constructive this turns out to be. EURJPY managed to extend losses and while a correction is required, I can’t see it being too deep.
It should be a steady day today…
Good trading
Ian Copsey