英倫金融：市場現狀沒有改變---行情走勢預測

我很希望價格運行能突破窄幅的盤整區間。價格看起來似乎隨後將會出現大幅度的運行發展，重回迴圈路徑。4小時價格均衡雲圖—多空分水嶺的限制---或許是主因，但這種區間震盪肯定不會再持續多一天…歐系貨幣對有些昏頭轉向，目前價格多空兩個方向都沒什麼障礙。價格今天應會突破運行區間。同時，我維持英鎊兌美元的看漲觀點，價格走勢輾轉並抗拒再次下行—價格仍維持在重要支撐上方（極限支撐點位）。
歐系貨幣對今天應會作出努力，突破目前的盤整僵局，從4小時橫向整理的價格雲圖中選擇方向。英鎊兌美元除外，其他歐系貨幣對的發展情況不會對其走勢產生太大的推動力影響…
澳元也是未能出現有效突破。澳元也是和歐系貨幣對同一陣營：價格低迷的運行狀態缺乏積極性。4小時雲圖也是呈現橫向整理勢態。我覺得價格轉而上行的可能性大些，但需要等待信號確認…
至於美元兌日元…價格走勢混亂。被最後一個修正到110.58的較小價格腿所矇騙，價格通道被突破後順勢下行。下行幅度應會進一步擴大—但這需要一個艱辛的過程。如果說產生有任何可能性的價格運行導向的話，那就要數歐元兌日元這個貨幣對了—引起其價格的震盪運行—所以需要關注歐元兌美元走勢在其中的影響。這個交叉貨幣對的價格走勢非常崎嶇，但我覺得價格需要出現強勢破位元，而且歐元兌日元下方沒有太多的空間—而美元兌日元似乎在逐步走低。所以,如果可以的話,歐元兌美元將承擔更多的責任來帶動交叉貨幣對往更高的點位運行…
祝交易順利。
伊恩•科普塞
英倫金融研究部高級顧問
國際貴金屬外匯波浪權威
原文：
No change to the status quo
I had hoped, so much, that we’d begin to see a break of the mini-range trading. It almost looked as if it would happen but then collapsed in what looks to be a recycling. The 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds – the fine line between bullish & bearish – were the culprits but there surely can’t be another day of this range trading… The Continental Europeans must have been drugged to the hilt considering there were really hardly any barriers to either side to the market. Today should see this range break. At the same time, GBPUSD which I had really looked for gains, fumbled and gave up to tumble even lower – although remained above important (but extreme) support.
This should be a day for the Europeans to make a stronger effort to break away from the current impasse by choosing to develop a gap from the 4-hour Clouds that are moving sideways. Well, GBPUSD is an exception but it wouldn’t take much to push it one way or the other…
Even the Aussie failed. Well, it was very much on the lines of the Europeans: lacklustre and lacking in any form of enthusiasm. It too, is grappling with a lateral move in its own 4-hour Cloud. I still feel the upside is the more likely direction but just wait for confirmation…
As for USDJPY… arrgghh... what a mess. Fooled by a more than mini-minor correction in the final legs up to 110.58, the channel support broke and has seen losses. There should be more - but this is going to be a tough outlook. If there is any possible guidance it should come from EURJPY – that has also caused some whipsaws – so we’re going to have to watch the influence of EURUSD in this mix. The cross has been a complete pain in the ass-ociation but I can’t help feel that a stronger break is needed and EURJPY doesn’t really have much space on the downside – while USDJPY appears to be edging lower. So there’s quite a lot of onus on EURUSD to drag the cross higher… if it can…
Good trading
Ian Copsey