英倫金融：困惑和衝突相結合—行情走勢預測

在歐系貨幣出現進一步反轉之前，我有關注美元出現小新高的可能走勢情況—但昨天美元指數卻出現直接下跌走勢…同時，美元兌日元一度下探到110.66—僅距離理想回撤支撐位2個點上方的位置。歐元兌美元和美元兌日元的強勁走勢的綜合表現，帶動了歐元兌日元往更高位運行，並觸及了上方我所關注的目的地區域。或可能出現的衝突情況是，美元兌日元和歐元兌美元同時出現上漲，這會帶動交叉貨幣對往更高點位運行…這是我不想看到的狀況。如果說在預期計算中存在任何薄弱的環節，那麼就可能是在美元兌日元方面，該貨幣對形成了較難追蹤進展的價格結構。因此，留意其他可能的發展選項。
歐系貨幣的運行情況，看起來似乎都符合預期的運行軌道。歐元兌美元走勢情況中某個結構組成部分確實存在疑問，但在美元兌瑞士法郎上卻相對清晰。從更大級別的浪型看，仍有一些運行空間，但各自結構之間有些差異，基於修正走勢中的相關比率，這些差異往往會被逐步消除。個人認為今天的價格運行情況顯得比較重要，留意各貨幣對的走勢發展，其走勢會否與潛在結構的情況相衝突。如衝突情況加劇，最好保持鎮定並等待結構平衡的再次出現。
在這些衝突走勢情況中，發現英鎊兌美元的走勢與其他歐系貨幣對的走勢情況不太相符。英鎊反彈到更高的投影目標，但這往往也提示了行情需要更深度的回檔。這或會是由於歐元兌英鎊需要一個相應較強的往上運行的修正。因此，近期走勢反彈後的發展結果是需要價格的下跌配合。
澳元進一步上行，但上行幅度還不足以確定昨日的行情會進一步延展。在當下價格運行的位置，出現兩個可能發展選項—很明顯，一個是看漲，而另一個是看跌---兩個選項的生效都在等待進一步的走勢確認。
所以，總體來講，今天的行情可能會出現複雜走勢。務必進行穩健的交易操作…
祝交易順利。
伊恩•科普塞
英倫金融研究部高級顧問
國際貴金屬外匯波浪權威
原文：
Puzzles and conflicts
Hmmm… I had my eye on minor new Dollar highs in the Continentals before the reversal – but yesterday saw direct losses… At the same time, USDJPY dipped down to 110.66 – 2 points above an ideal retracement support. The combination of strength in both EURUSD and USDJPY dragged EURJPY higher and to a target area I had been looking for. The conflict is that it would appear that both USDJPY and EURUSD are bullish which will drag the cross higher… and that’s something I hadn’t wanted. If there is any weakness in my count, then it’s more likely to be in USDJPY that has been a difficult structure to track. Therefore, watch out for this possible alternative.
When looking at the Continental Europeans it looks as if everything is on track. EURUSD did have a question mark over one part of the structure but USDCHF is quite clear. In the larger wave degrees, there is still some way to go but there are subtle differences in their individual structures but which tend to work through because of the relatively correlated ratios in the corrections. I think it’s going to be important today to be aware of how each pair is developing and whether they conflict with what’s happening within the underlying picture. If a conflict arises it will be better to remain square and wait for the structures to balance out again.
Within these conflicts I can see GBPUSD being contrary to the Continental Europeans. The Pound rallied to the higher projection targets but tends to suggest that we need a deeper pullback lower. That tends to be likely because EURGBP does require a relatively strong correction higher. Thus, the outcome from the recent rally does need losses to develop.
The Aussie made further gains but not quite enough to be certain of extending yesterday’s rally. At this point there are two options – clearly one bullish and one bearish – both can be valid but wait for confirmation.
So, it looks like a complicated day overall. Make sure that solid trade set ups develop…
Good trading
Ian Copsey