我们应该看到的美元下跌的最后阶段...
浪费了两个星期......，似乎我们还是需要多一点的时间来延长下跌态势。事实上，这种模式似乎要经过很多货币的走势进行验证推断，包括美元兑瑞郎甚至通过欧元兑日元甚至欧元/英镑。基本的观点是继续看涨美元，但我们都知道，我们必须要等待和分析，在一瞬间，所有压抑的情绪会爆发出来，市场将完全发疯。一旦这一调整运动过程结束，唯一的结果将是利空欧元和看涨美元。关键的未知数是在哪里止损？
美元看涨前景也隐含在黄金和白银。双方仍然需要新的低点。至少有两个品种没有如预期走的更高 ，黄金高一点，也如我的预期。他们甚至可能会产生轻微的修正新高相比过去一周，但我仍然认为后市利空两个品种。
澳元兑美元甚至出现一个复杂的游戏。它有一个更大的双底，虽然我还没有确信我们会看到行情朝着目标而去。然而，即使这样发展， 在某些时候，需要延长的跌势…
与此同时，美元兑日元试图跌破122.45，但失败了。这需要一些观察，因为有较低的回撤水平所以建议保持谨慎，但一旦出现一个125.85上方的新高，我们必须要更加小心，一旦这发现其上方目标，那里是需要一些实质性的下跌。这是不可能的，它可能会发生在本周，但也有风险，所以我们仍然需要小心。
如上所述，无论是透过欧元， 欧元兑日元和欧元兑英镑的分析，都将继续下跌。前者仍然需要一个新的高度，可能欧元兑英镑也是如此，但总的来说，这些看起来都像后市将可能有巨大的跌势。
所以，不用太多的细节，因为我们仍然有在几天等待希腊债务的讨论。一旦尘埃落定，我们应该看到美元继续反弹…
'We should be seeing the final stages of Dollar losses…
What a waste of two weeks… and still it seems as if we still need a little more time for the Dollar to extend losses just a touch more. Indeed, this pattern does seem to be confirmed through many currency pairs including USDCHF and even by inference through EURJPY and even EURGBP. The base outlook continues to be Dollar bullish but we all know that we have to play the game of sitting still and knowing that, in a split second, all hell will let loose and the market will go totally berserk. Once this phoney process of going through the motions of discussions is over, the only outcome will be Euro bearish and Dollar bullish. The key 'unknown is where to place stops…
The Dollar bullish outlook is also implied in Gold and Silver. Both still require new lows. At least both did correct higher as expected – in Gold a little higher than I had anticipated. They could even generate a minor new corrective high compared to the past week but I still consider the outlook as bearish for both.
Even AUDUSD appears to be playing a complicated game of complex corrections. It does have a larger double bottom although I’m not yet convinced we’ll see that target being hit. However, even this will – at some point – need to extend losses…
'At the same time, USDJPY made an attempt to extend losses below 122.45 but failed. It needs some watching because there are lower retracement levels so caution is advised still but once we have seen a new high above 125.85 we shall have to put on our “be more careful hats.” Once this has found its upside target there is a need for some substantial losses. It’s not impossible that it could happen this week, but there are risks so we still need to tread carefully.
As mentioned above, both EUR crosses – EURJPY and EURGBP – are begging to continue losses. The former still needs a new high and probably EURGPB also, but overall both of these look like seeing heavy losses after this.
So, without going into too much detail because we still have to navigate the few days while the Greek Debt discussions rumble on.
and thrown in the bin, we should see the Dollar continue its rally…
Have a profitable week.
Good trading
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