市場步入9月底波瀾壯闊。新一周先看日圓，作為主要非美貨幣之一，其走勢備受矚目。日本自民党大選將於 9 月 27 日舉行，新黨魁的誕生將深刻影響日本貨幣政策，進而左右日圓走向。候選人石破茂、高市早苗、小泉進次郎各具特點，他們的政策傾向成為市場焦點。日圓的升跌不僅關乎自身，還與美元緊密相連，對金價有著不可忽視的作用。尤其要警惕日圓拆倉潮風險，一旦觸發流動性恐慌，金價可能受壓。若日圓升值，在一定程度上可能會使資金流向日元資產，從而減少對黃金的需求，給金價帶來下行壓力；反之，若日圓貶值，可能會促使資金尋找避險資產，如黃金，推動金價上漲。
再看油價，同樣處於市場關注焦點。以色列軍事行動持續升級，中東產油國的反應至關重要。當前油價雖有回升，但距油組國家維穩目標 80 美元仍有差距。市場預期周邊國家在以色列挑釁下可能採取更激烈回應，若軍事行動影響產油設施，油價有望反彈，這將對金價形成支撐。油價上漲通常意味著通脹預期上升，而黃金作為抗通脹資產，在這種情況下可能會吸引更多資金流入，推動金價上揚。
最後看美國非農数据，它已成為潛在 “黑天鵝”。市場普遍預期非農資料可能走軟，若終值如預期且未引發資金恐慌，金價有望再度沖高。然而，若非農資料走軟引發對美國經濟衰退的擔憂，資金可能撤出股市及其他投資工具，回歸美元，這將給金價帶來壓力。回顧歷史，大選年的 10 月，非農數據走軟有先例可循，如 2020 年和 2016 年。操作上，需認識到非農資料只是民調結果，終值與預期出現落差可能性較大。預期值只能作為公告前參考，不能作為公告期間入市依據。若公告後有美聯儲官員講話或突發風險事件，也會影響市場行情。
總之，在當前複雜多變的金融市場形勢下，日圓、油價和非農資料的走勢充滿不確定性，它們共同作用于金價，使得金價走勢更加難以捉摸。投資者需保持高度警惕，密切關注市場動態，以便做出明智的投資決策。
【Royal Capital】Yen and oil in flux. Gold eyes non-farm calmly
Recently, the financial market has been magnificent. First, look at the yen. As one of the major non-US currencies, its trend has attracted much attention. The general election of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party will be held on September 27. The birth of the new party leader will deeply affect Japan's monetary policy and then influence the direction of the yen. Candidates Shigeru Ishiba, Sanae Takaichi, and Shinjiro Koizumi have their own characteristics, and their policy tendencies have become the focus of the market. The rise and fall of the yen not only concerns itself but is also closely connected to the US dollar, which has an undeniable effect on the gold price. In particular, be vigilant against the risk of yen unwinding. Once liquidity panic is triggered, the gold price may be under pressure. If the yen appreciates, to a certain extent, it may cause funds to flow to yen assets, thereby reducing the demand for gold and bringing downward pressure to the gold price; on the contrary, if the yen depreciates, it may prompt funds to look for safe-haven assets such as gold and push up the gold price.
Then look at oil prices, which are also at the center of market attention. Israel's military operations continue to escalate, and the response of Middle East oil-producing countries is crucial. Although oil prices have rebounded to some extent currently, there is still a gap from the stability maintenance target of 80 US dollars set by OPEC countries. The market expects that surrounding countries may take more intense responses under Israel's provocation. If military operations affect oil production facilities, oil prices are expected to rebound, which will support the gold price. Usually, a rise in oil prices means an increase in inflation expectations. As an inflation-resistant asset, gold may attract more funds to flow in under such circumstances and push up the gold price.
Finally, look at US non-farm data, which has become a potential "black swan". The market generally expects that non-farm data may weaken. If the final value is as expected and does not trigger capital panic, the gold price is expected to rise again. However, if the weakening of non-farm data triggers concerns about a US economic recession, funds may withdraw from the stock market and other investment tools and return to the US dollar, which will put pressure on the gold price. Looking back at history, in October of an election year, there are precedents for weak non-farm data, such as in 2020 and 2016. In operation, it is necessary to recognize that non-farm data is only the result of a poll. There is a greater possibility of a gap between the final value and the expectation. The expected value can only be used as a reference before the announcement and cannot be used as a basis for entering the market during the announcement period. If there are speeches by Federal Reserve officials or unexpected risk events after the announcement, it will also affect the market situation.
In short, under the current complex and changing financial market situation, the trends of the yen, oil prices and non-farm data are full of uncertainties. They jointly act on the gold price, making the gold price trend even more elusive. Investors need to be highly vigilant and closely follow market dynamics in order to make wise investment decisions.
By Wayne Lai
A senior financial practitioner in Hong Kong. He has served well-known financial public relations firms, financial media, and investment banks. Past service targets include Societe Generale, CMC Markets, KVB Kunlun, etc. At the same time, he is a part-time lecturer at colleges and universities, a regular guest of financial media, and an author of financial readings. He has represented Hong Kong to attend world financial forums many times. Currently, he is the research and marketing director of Royal Capital. Over the years, he has won multiple industry awards for service institutions.
Disclaimer: The content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or inducement for any person to submit an offer to buy or subscribe for any securities. The price of structured products can rise or fall sharply, and investors may suffer total losses. Past performance does not reflect future performance. Before investing, investors should understand the risks and consult professional advisors and refer to relevant listing documents. Nothing in this article constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, and there is no statement that any investment or strategy is suitable or in line with your individual circumstances.
再看油價，同樣處於市場關注焦點。以色列軍事行動持續升級，中東產油國的反應至關重要。當前油價雖有回升，但距油組國家維穩目標 80 美元仍有差距。市場預期周邊國家在以色列挑釁下可能採取更激烈回應，若軍事行動影響產油設施，油價有望反彈，這將對金價形成支撐。油價上漲通常意味著通脹預期上升，而黃金作為抗通脹資產，在這種情況下可能會吸引更多資金流入，推動金價上揚。
最後看美國非農数据，它已成為潛在 “黑天鵝”。市場普遍預期非農資料可能走軟，若終值如預期且未引發資金恐慌，金價有望再度沖高。然而，若非農資料走軟引發對美國經濟衰退的擔憂，資金可能撤出股市及其他投資工具，回歸美元，這將給金價帶來壓力。回顧歷史，大選年的 10 月，非農數據走軟有先例可循，如 2020 年和 2016 年。操作上，需認識到非農資料只是民調結果，終值與預期出現落差可能性較大。預期值只能作為公告前參考，不能作為公告期間入市依據。若公告後有美聯儲官員講話或突發風險事件，也會影響市場行情。
總之，在當前複雜多變的金融市場形勢下，日圓、油價和非農資料的走勢充滿不確定性，它們共同作用于金價，使得金價走勢更加難以捉摸。投資者需保持高度警惕，密切關注市場動態，以便做出明智的投資決策。
【Royal Capital】Yen and oil in flux. Gold eyes non-farm calmly
Recently, the financial market has been magnificent. First, look at the yen. As one of the major non-US currencies, its trend has attracted much attention. The general election of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party will be held on September 27. The birth of the new party leader will deeply affect Japan's monetary policy and then influence the direction of the yen. Candidates Shigeru Ishiba, Sanae Takaichi, and Shinjiro Koizumi have their own characteristics, and their policy tendencies have become the focus of the market. The rise and fall of the yen not only concerns itself but is also closely connected to the US dollar, which has an undeniable effect on the gold price. In particular, be vigilant against the risk of yen unwinding. Once liquidity panic is triggered, the gold price may be under pressure. If the yen appreciates, to a certain extent, it may cause funds to flow to yen assets, thereby reducing the demand for gold and bringing downward pressure to the gold price; on the contrary, if the yen depreciates, it may prompt funds to look for safe-haven assets such as gold and push up the gold price.
Then look at oil prices, which are also at the center of market attention. Israel's military operations continue to escalate, and the response of Middle East oil-producing countries is crucial. Although oil prices have rebounded to some extent currently, there is still a gap from the stability maintenance target of 80 US dollars set by OPEC countries. The market expects that surrounding countries may take more intense responses under Israel's provocation. If military operations affect oil production facilities, oil prices are expected to rebound, which will support the gold price. Usually, a rise in oil prices means an increase in inflation expectations. As an inflation-resistant asset, gold may attract more funds to flow in under such circumstances and push up the gold price.
Finally, look at US non-farm data, which has become a potential "black swan". The market generally expects that non-farm data may weaken. If the final value is as expected and does not trigger capital panic, the gold price is expected to rise again. However, if the weakening of non-farm data triggers concerns about a US economic recession, funds may withdraw from the stock market and other investment tools and return to the US dollar, which will put pressure on the gold price. Looking back at history, in October of an election year, there are precedents for weak non-farm data, such as in 2020 and 2016. In operation, it is necessary to recognize that non-farm data is only the result of a poll. There is a greater possibility of a gap between the final value and the expectation. The expected value can only be used as a reference before the announcement and cannot be used as a basis for entering the market during the announcement period. If there are speeches by Federal Reserve officials or unexpected risk events after the announcement, it will also affect the market situation.
In short, under the current complex and changing financial market situation, the trends of the yen, oil prices and non-farm data are full of uncertainties. They jointly act on the gold price, making the gold price trend even more elusive. Investors need to be highly vigilant and closely follow market dynamics in order to make wise investment decisions.
By Wayne Lai
A senior financial practitioner in Hong Kong. He has served well-known financial public relations firms, financial media, and investment banks. Past service targets include Societe Generale, CMC Markets, KVB Kunlun, etc. At the same time, he is a part-time lecturer at colleges and universities, a regular guest of financial media, and an author of financial readings. He has represented Hong Kong to attend world financial forums many times. Currently, he is the research and marketing director of Royal Capital. Over the years, he has won multiple industry awards for service institutions.
Disclaimer: The content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or inducement for any person to submit an offer to buy or subscribe for any securities. The price of structured products can rise or fall sharply, and investors may suffer total losses. Past performance does not reflect future performance. Before investing, investors should understand the risks and consult professional advisors and refer to relevant listing documents. Nothing in this article constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, and there is no statement that any investment or strategy is suitable or in line with your individual circumstances.