雖然在昨天市場剛開始的交易時段裡，行情的發展與個人的預期不完全相符，但符合開放式的結果預期。有些價格運行觸及關鍵位置和隨後的價格運行發展表現—特別是美元兌日元的下行幅度，價格觸及了超出預期範圍的極限位置。預期支撐線的力度相當有限，遠離現價運行區域，並且價格或進一步再次走低。也就是說，目前還沒有確認是否有足夠的動能將價格從低位拉升。
因此，即使本周的開場有其他備用可能選項，但這並沒有給最終結果帶來真正改變。市場仍會出現劇烈波動—不要過度受市場表現影響，即便如此，今天看起來不像會出現較強運行趨勢。市場存在橫向整固走勢的發展風險，時間的延展可以從價格運行的區間範圍體現。這種情況尤其與歐系貨幣相關。
正如預期，歐元兌日元創出125.00高點後，價格穩步向下運行。在大一些級別的週期內，我並不認為這是一個階段性的最終低點，但是是臨時低點。然而，價格的運行發展需要美元兌日元開始出現價格企穩跡象並出現收復跌勢來配合，上行突破更高點位—初步估計113.25上方…如歐元兌日元的價格運行進一步下破創出新低，將會出現比預期更大幅度的下跌走勢。
澳元繼週五走出低點後，也出現了溫和的後續發展，但隨後價格出現反彈。價格運行會出現較昨日更低的點位，但之後會有價格修復走勢出現。這往往意味著澳新貨幣和歐系貨幣是保持高度一致的。
今天總體是一個穩定的開始，並且將會看到價格劇烈波動的持續時間。
祝交易順利。
伊恩•科普塞
英倫金融研究部高級顧問
國際貴金屬外匯波浪權威
原文：
Good progress overall
Although the beginning of trading yesterday wasn’t quite what I had expected from the open the eventual outcome was as expected. There were a few touch and go moments – particularly the depth of the losses in USDJPY that hit an extreme which I had not expected. The line in the sand was pretty much the limit beyond which it would turn lower again. That said, we have had no confirmation that it has the energy to pick itself up off the floor.
So, even with the alternative start to the week, the eventual outcome hasn’t really changed much. We still have some choppy moves to come – not excessive by the look of things but nevertheless today doesn’t look like a strong trending day. There may be risk of consolidations developing to extend the time we see within a range. This relates particularly to the Europeans.
As I had expected, EURJPY found its high at 125.00 and saw a steady bearish day. In the larger picture I don’t think this is a final low but a temporary one. However, it will require USDJPY to begin to stabilise and muster up some courage to break back higher – initially above 113.25… If it breaks any lower then we’re seeing a much deeper decline than I had anticipated.
The Aussie also saw a mild follow-through from Friday’s low but then a recovery. This should see a low below yesterday’s low but then a recovery. This tends to suggest that the Antipodean is very much in line with the Europeans.
Mostly a steady start to the day and we’ll have to see how long the choppy development lasts.
Good trading
Ian Copsey