英倫金融：美聯儲議息公佈前的行情走勢預測

今天的行情會溫和加速嗎？
在昨天的市場行情裡我尋求穩定的走勢發展，但我的想法是希望能看到些價格運行進展。從歐元兌美元和美元兌瑞士法郎的盤面情況來看，市場把我的“穩定”解讀為橫向整理運行。其他貨幣對實際上確實展現了穩定的發展，雖然沒有體現任何較強的推動力。很明顯市場維持自我保護模式—或許是受了持續將近一年的橫向整固走勢的影響（歐元兌美元）。但是，最壞的情況已經結束了，我所認為的“結束”將在今天的行情中給予我們一個更具方向性發展的指引。
特別是，某些具有不確定性/混合性前景的貨幣對似乎已經下定了決心，如澳元對美元和英鎊兌美元。也就是說，這些貨幣對將會出現較明確的下行走勢，並應會下行接近短期低點。這兩個貨幣對的情況同樣令我陷入對其不穩定的下跌走勢的解碼過程中。希望能找出合適的結構形態…
如日內沒出現意料之外的下跌的話，美元兌日元的價格走勢相對較為穩定。價格運行到目標點位元的過程有些迂回曲折，期間仍會出現震盪、反復的行情，但總體來講，我對它的走勢情況感到比較滿意。美元兌日元的價格運行情況也有助於帶動歐元兌日元進一步下行。個中的交匯處出現類似于英鎊兌美元的不確定性下行。美元兌日元和歐元兌美元潛在的進一步下行，可能會為雙方帶來更清晰的方向發展。
總體而言，我仍然感到滿意。我希望能看到稍微明確一點的加速發展，但我們仍需要保持耐心…
祝交易順利。
伊恩•科普塞
英倫金融研究部高級顧問
國際貴金屬外匯波浪權威
原文：
Mild acceleration today?
I had looked for steady trading yesterday, but my idea was for progress to be made. The market interpreted my “steady” as moving sideways in EURUSD and USDCHF it seems. The other pairs actually did provide steady progress although without any strong impetus. Clearly the market remains in self-protection mode – perhaps rocked by the constant sideways development (in EURUSD) that has lasted for an entire year now. However, all bad things come to an end and I think that “end” will provide us with a more directional move over the course of today.
In particular, the pairs with uncertain/mixed outlooks appear to have made up their minds – these being AUDUSD and GBPUSD. Having said that, these two made steady losses but should be close to a short term low. Equally, both made me suffer in terms of decoding the persistently erratic decline. Hopefully I have got these two structures right…
USDJPY made steady, if unspectacular losses over the day. It has taken a round-about route to the target and there could still be some swings and roundabouts to navigate but overall I am pretty satisfied with how it’s developing. It also helped EURJPY to drift lower also. The cross is rather similar to GBPUSD in terms of the erratic decline. There is potential for further losses on the back of USDJPY and EURUSD and therefore could provide the best of both worlds in terms of a stronger directional move.
Overall, I remain satisfied. I’d like to see a little stronger acceleration but we’ll have to be patient still…
Good trading
Ian Copsey