英倫金融：混合發展情況—行情走勢預測

昨天的行情確實是較為奇特，還不能說已經撲抓到了什麼資訊。行情發展增加了走勢的複雜程度，加劇了各貨幣對之間的脫節情況。例如歐系貨幣對與英鎊兌美元的大致橫向走勢，英鎊兌美元的進一步下行，打破了我之前所關注的三角形整理區間，美元兌日元和澳元兌美元出現的快速下跌。昨天行情的主題是“信號鈍化”，但已有預期極端行情走勢的獨特發展—並且過程中出現更多相同性質的風險。
就目前而言，歐系貨幣對看起來將延長其大致的橫向盤整走勢，但應會通過歐元/美元的走勢帶動而逐漸走出方向。屆時我懷疑後續將出現前2天所提示的情況。英鎊兌美元…我傾向價格往更高點位運行的觀點，雖然還沒看到較強的信號出現，所以最好保持觀望等待信號確認。
澳元兌美元最終出現了預期的下行走勢。小時圖級別有出現看漲背離，但4小時的價格運行量能提示價格將往更低點位運行。這意味著修正走勢僅是為了後續恢復下跌行情而做的鋪墊。
至於日元貨幣對，我開始考慮潛在的價格反轉走勢，但價格的運行情況在下破低點後變得清晰了，不可避免地出現傾向看跌的結果。事實上，價格運行已出現了較大的下行幅度。如澳元，1小時級別看漲背離，但從4小時級別的價格量能仍能看出一些看跌的蹤跡。懷疑一個稍微複雜一點的修正走勢將出現—而不是較簡單的修正方式—但最好還是觀察反轉信號的出現，避免陷入修正行情當中。這也應會帶動歐元兌日元的相應走勢發展…
目前行情發展仍然還有些棘手的混亂情況出現。所以需要謹慎看待。
祝交易順利。
伊恩•科普塞
英倫金融研究部高級顧問
國際貴金屬外匯波浪權威
原文：
A mixed bag
Well, that was a strange day and I can’t say that I caught much of that. In the process it has raised more complications and a general disconnect between the various currency pairs. Examples are the basic sideways move in the Continental Europeans versus GBPUSD, the additional decline in GBPUSD that breaks the triangle I had considered, sharp losses in USDJPY and also losses in AUDUSD. Yesterday’s title was “diverging indications” but I had expected the extremes to be so whacky – and the risk does appear to be for more of the same.
For now, the Continental Europeans look like extending their general sideways move but should pull out of their trance by European/U.S. trading and at that time I suspect the follow-through I have been suggesting for the past two days. GBPUSD … well, I’d prefer higher although I can’t see any strong indications and would therefore be best to wait for confirmation.
AUDUSD finally managed to see the losses I had expected. There is an hourly bullish divergence but 4-hour momentum is still pointing lower. This suggests a correction only and for losses to resume.
On to the JPY pairs, I began the day considering a potential reversal higher but it became clear on the break of the low that a more bearish outcome was inevitable. Indeed, it managed another sharp decline. Like the Aussie, it has an hourly bullish divergence but with 4-hour momentum still sniffing the bearish trail. I suspect a slightly deeper correction – rather than shallow – but best look for reversal indications rather than riding any correction. This should drag EURJPY along with its more important brother…
There are still some tricky confusions around. Take care.
Good trading
Ian Copsey