昨日的價格運行狀況不太明確。價格走勢並不完全與預期相悖，但美元指數沒有展開全面的上漲。懷疑今天的上半天時間內仍維持這種狀況。如英鎊兌美元，價格運行似乎被鎖定在一個橫向區間—這種情況也潛在存在於澳元兌美元的走勢當中。歐元兌美元的表現如同被前方開來的大卡車的前射燈照著，一副呆若木雞的模樣，而美元兌瑞士法郎則表現略穩定的一些上行走勢，但隨後價格出現回落。這些情況似乎體現市場的價格運行有些脫節。
話雖如此，但我感覺價格或會出現方向性突破走勢，在較長的交易時段來臨之前，（如平常一樣）即歐盤或者美盤交易時段，又或者兩個交易時段裡。我仍然傾向于美元的上行預期，但需要關注目前的狀態會維持多久。
雖然澳元的走勢有些糾結—但足以體現潛在橫向整理走勢出現的可能。這並不是我所期待的結果，但也有其他的一些可選項出現，這種走勢狀態會在近期的運行區間裡持續一整天。價格在這些區間裡打轉。
至於美元兌日元，價格運行穩步上行，雖然我希望這種狀況能持續，但一些初級的整固走勢風險也存在其中。這往往配合了歐元兌日元的價格運行發展，得益於日元這位大哥一定程度的走勢修復。然而，結合歐元兌美元的下行預期，需要觀察3個貨幣對之間的平衡。對於這3個貨幣對，價格上方仍有些發展空間，關鍵是交點在哪個位置體現走弱並開始往更低的點位運行…
我發現在價格範圍內貨幣對的關係，在某程度上比較靈活，但更明確的價格運行偏向發展可能是今天市場休市之前或週一才會出現…
祝週末愉快。
伊恩•科普塞
英倫金融研究部高級顧問
國際貴金屬外匯波浪權威
原文：
Quiet end to the week?
I’m not quite sure about yesterday’s moves. Nothing really went awry but we didn’t see the Dollar make gains universally. I suspect this will continue over the first half of today. For example, GBPUSD appears to be locked in a sideways range – and potentially AUDUSD also. EURUSD appeared to be frozen as if caught in the headlights of an on coming truck while USDCHF made some steady gains but then gave them back. It’s almost as if the market is a little disjointed.
Having said that, I do feel we shall see a directional break before long and most likely (as normal) either in European or U.S trading hours – or maybe both. I still think this is more biased to the Dollar upside but we’ll have to see how long the current status quo can hold.
Even the Aussie has some kinks in it – and enough to suggest the potential for a sideways consolidation. This isn’t the outcome I expected but there are a few options here and this should keep it in the recent range for the entire day. Play the ranges here.
As for USDJPY, it has made steady gains and while I expect these to continue there is also the risk of some initial consolidation. This tends to dovetail with EURJPY that took advantage of its Japanese big brother to make a decent recovery. However, with the expectation that EURUSD will decline, we shall need to watch the balance between the three pairs. While there can still be upside room for the cross there will be a point where the cross fades and begins to point lower…
I find the relationship within the range of currency pairs quite flexible to a degree but a clearer directional bias is likely to develop either by the end of today or on Monday…
Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey