英倫金融：市場回復防守模式--行情走勢預測

記得以前英國央行宣佈加息2%甚至3%時，並沒有給市場帶來太多影響。而現在美聯儲的利率決議只是宣佈維持利率水準在0.25%或者是維持在0.5%，兩者之間的市場反應相差甚大。每個人都對細微的差距感到興奮。一個星期後，市場將會把這些情況消化掉。這些都是一派胡言。以日本的通脹率為例，目前官方統計資料是大約1.1%。更離譜的是，價格上漲而供應量減少。這就是所謂的“通縮”，現在日本也出現這種情況。1970年代，英國出現的通縮情況猜想最終怎樣？通縮瓦解，因為生產者可以進一步減少供應量，然後通脹水準迅速上升到15%。這是情況轉變的信號。
美聯儲的聲明已經帶來了明顯的影響，似乎美元會出現往低位修正的發展傾向。我不認為這已經結束，最大可能將出現上下波動行情。我不確定今天或者還是明天會發生這些情況，但基本上針對急速的下跌走勢，市場需要調整，但應該會出現在後續的行情裡。這在歐系貨幣和美元兌日元的走勢上有較明顯的體現。另外一些直盤貨幣對—英鎊兌美元和澳元對美元—幾乎都處於修正當中。而我也並沒有期望會出現更多的發展，價格走勢情況已經給予了我需要確認的資訊，特別是美元兌日元。總體來講，這意味著在下周之前，價格運行“一切如常”。
因此，對於今天，不要期望會出現明顯的價格走勢。市場運行受到一些衝擊，所以如果有進場機會的話，建議見好就收。明天之前—或者如果今天出現一個複雜的修正走勢—那麼下週一，我們應能再次看到較明朗的價格運行方向…
祝交易順利。
伊恩•科普塞
英倫金融研究部高級顧問
國際貴金屬外匯波浪權威
原文：
Back into defensive mode
Gosh, I remember the days when the Bank of England hiked rates by 2% or even 3% and didn’t really make any impact on the market. Now the Fed announcement that interest rates are being held between 0.25% and 0.50% and the market reacts. Zzzz… Everyone’s getting too excited about very little. Give it another week and the market will have shrugged it off. It’s all a lot of baloney. Take the Japanese inflation rate. Officially it’s around 1.1%. More baloney. Prices have gone up and volume has gone down. That’s called “shrinkflation” and it’s happening big time here in Japan. The U.K. had shrinkflation back in the 1970’s and guess what? Shrinkflation collapsed because manufacturers could reduce volume any more and the inflation rate whizzed up to 15%. It is the sign of things to come.
Well, the Fed announcement has clearly caused a reaction that has seen new Dollar corrective lows. I don’t think this is complete and most likely we’ll see another blip. I’m not sure whether it’ll happen today or tomorrow but basically the market needs a pullback to the sharp losses but should then see follow-through. This is most evident in the Continental Europeans and USDJPY. The other direct pairs – GBPUSD and AUDUSD – are merely in a correction. While I hadn’t expected this development, it has given confirmation of what I feel is needed in USDJPY in particular. Overall, this should mean that by next week it will be ‘business as usual.’
Thus, for today, don’t expect a significant day. The market will be a little shell shocked so just take a few pips when they are easy to take. By tomorrow – or if today is a complex correction – then Monday, we should begin to see a directional move once again…
Good trading
Ian Copsey