英倫金融：出現方向走勢的一天？--行情走勢預測

對於昨天市場無方向的震盪走勢已有心理準備，我對昨天的行情表現也基本感到滿意。英鎊兌美元是其中一個相對能走出方向的貨幣對，對其價格走勢維持大致的看漲預期，暫時還沒有任何先入為主的漲幅限度觀點。所以我將此視為一個積極的信號，雖然比較難判斷。美元兌日元和美元兌瑞士法郎再次走低的情況多少有點令人感到失望。
接下來的市場走勢會怎樣發展？對此我有一個大致的時間目標，大概出現在5月份的第三周。大約在這個時間框架內，我認為會出現比較明顯的運行方向。價格運行的趨勢，一個日線級別的趨勢…有相當長的一段時間內，市場沒有呈現清晰的日線級別趨勢，以至於很容易令人錯信這個級別的趨勢不會再次出現。如市場自去年年初就開始了令人痛苦的震盪走勢。但是，即便如此也仍然意味著接下來的6周時間內，我們仍需要謹慎看待行情的發展。目前處於修正結構內的價格運行似乎需要調整。因此，總體來講，我們仍將繼續看到一些不同的結構和價格走勢發展。
在過去幾周裡，我一直心無旁騖地錘煉自己的預期觀點，現在大概也是開始實踐的時候了。從現在看，美元的看漲預期發展有多快還是個未知數。然而，整個預期的發展似乎穿插在歐系貨幣對和美元兌日元的走勢裡。澳元的上行走勢情況有待商榷。因此，懷疑今天應會出現一些走勢進展。至於行情發展能有多迅速，我不想在這方面冒險，給予一個無精打采的市場猜測…
至於歐元兌日元，也可以將5月份第3周視為一個潛在目標。看上去似乎不會呈現相對直接的運行路徑，但價格波動的區間範圍會變得更為寬廣。從目前情況來看，價格應會進一步走低，但我認為下方空間有限。
祝交易順利。
伊恩•科普塞
英倫金融研究部高級顧問
國際貴金屬外匯波浪權威
原文：
A directional day?
Having anticipated a particularly non-directional day yesterday, I was basically happy with yesterday. The one pair that did manage a little movement was GBPUSD for which I was basically bullish but without any preconceived idea of how deep the gains will penetrate. So, I’ll take that as positive day although it was a difficult one to judge. That USDJPY and USDCHF made marginal new lows was a bit disappointing.
What next? Well, I have a rough time target around the 3rd week in May. Around that timeframe I feel there may well be a stronger directional move. Yes, a trend. A daily trend… It has been so long without a decent daily trend that it would be easy to believe that we’ll never see one again. Such as been the wretchedness of the market since early last year. However, that still suggests we may need to tread water for another 6 weeks. This still appears to be correct from the position in the current corrective patterns. Thus, overall, I can still see we shall continue to see some difficult structures and development.
I have been hammering my view over the past week without getting anywhere but it is now about time that this view began to materialise. For now it seems Dollar bullish but how quickly this can develop is not really a known factor. However, this does seem to be universal across the Europeans and USDJPY. The Aussie is up for negotiation. Therefore, I suspect today should make some steps towards that outcome. How quickly this will develop I wouldn’t want to hazard a guess given the lethargy in the market…
As for EURJPY, I can see the 3rd week in May as a potential target also. It doesn’t look like a direct move but one with a wider amplitude between the swings. For now this should be lower but I don’t see a great deal of room on the downside for now.
Good trading
Ian Copsey