英倫金融：美元走勢溫和的一天

最近的交易情況很複雜--至少從結構上看是這樣的。價格衝擊關鍵位置，嘗試解決這些類似數獨般令人沮喪的問題…我從歐系貨幣對裡發現些細節，總體傾向于提示美元今天呈現溫和走勢。仍然有一些更高級別難度的數獨遊戲在價格運行前方等候，但我覺得我們需要一步步來。
首先，美元蓄勢突破4小時價格均衡雲圖。最初的嘗試可能不會成功，但我懷疑，在昨日銀行假期過後，歐洲和北美進入抗爭模式，將會出現一些價格破位的運行表現。即便如此，我感覺從歐元兌美元和美元兌瑞士法郎的價格發展情況中推測美元將進一步靠近下方支撐，而英鎊兌美元可能會試圖進一步走高。事實上，這似乎也體現對英國最終將會選擇留在歐盟的信心。
與此同時，澳元一直保持較穩定的震盪下行。我覺得價格上行空間有限，並且，更多的可能是，價格將會在今天稍後時間內回復下行走勢。價格下方仍有一個較有說服力的目標點位元，只要價格轉向下行，將會觸及到我所提及的下行目標。
至於日元貨幣對…美元兌日元呈現良好的走勢表現，上週五價格拒絕進一步走低並在後半天時間內出現較強反彈—走勢狀況一直延續到昨天。首先，我們需要鎖定目前價格下行的下方支撐—可能在4小時價格均衡雲圖。我們需要確保價格能在此位置得到支撐。歐元兌美元需要上行到更高點位，以避免歐元兌日元出現複雜的修正走勢。可能稍後在美元兌日元的走勢上能銜接起來…
今天看起來不像價格走勢延續的一天，但應該會出現一些令人感覺較為舒心的交易機會…
祝交易順利。
伊恩•科普塞
英倫金融研究部高級顧問
國際貴金屬外匯波浪權威
原文：
A softer Dollar for today
Recent trading has been terribly complicated – at least in terms of the structures. Bashing the keys trying to resolve these Sudoku-like problems can be terribly frustrating… I’ve noted some observations in the Europeans that tend to suggest a softer Dollar today. There are still some higher degree Sudoku puzzles ready and waiting but I think we need to take them stage by stage.
Firstly, the Dollar is pressing to break through the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds. The initial attempts may not succeed but I suspect that by the time Europe and North America enter the fray after yesterday’s bank holidays that we’ll see those breaks. Even then, I feel there are relatively close Dollar supports in EURUSD and USDCHF while GBPUSD may well have an attempt to push higher a little more strongly. Indeed, there appears to be quite some confidence that the Brexit referendum will keep the UK in the EU.
Meanwhile the Aussie has maintained a steady and relatively choppy decline. However, I don’t see a great deal of room on the upside and, more likely, we’ll see it resume losses over the course of the day. There is a quite convincing downside target so as long as we start to see a reversal lower, we’ll see the targets I have been suggesting.
As for the JPY pairs… USDJPY did a great job of refusing to correct too low on Friday and then saw it rally strongly over the second half of the day – and follow-through yesterday. First we need to establish support in the current decline – and probably at the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Cloud. From there we need to ensure that this holds. What EURUSD needs to do is push higher to avoid a complicated correction in EURJPY. Perhaps later USDJPY can jointly assist…
It doesn’t look like a day of extensive moves but there should be a few opportunities for comfortable trades…
Good trading
Ian Copsey