英倫金融「外匯評論」：一個更具方向性的星期？

在過去的一周 - 也許是10日 - 市場圍繞著進一步向好的氛圍，但沒有真正成為氣候。它讓我感到沮喪，更多對於果斷進展的缺乏，使我產生行情將打破當前走勢結構的想法。然而，它不能一直進行下去。確實，我不願看到一個無法打破僵局的星期 - 最好的今天。我需要它！那麼，在局部結構方面，我想我們可以看到範圍稍大的發展，但似乎不太可能在中期範圍內 - 在10天範圍內 - 可能在今天也保持不變。然而，它總是值得密切留意的一個意外驚喜......
話雖如此，我看得出美元兌日元，歐元兌美元和歐元兌日元之間的平衡是非常脆弱的 - 基於歐元兌日元。我已經預見在交叉關係方面的持續增強。美元兌日元已經落後於它的發展，就像歐元兌美元，但我覺得交叉走勢需要一個新的高度，這是相當困難的，因為無論歐元兌美元或美元兌日元只有其中之一足夠牢固能夠成為我的首選目標。隨著希臘債務問題依舊，歐元兌美元沒有太明確的下行風險是一個顯著的問題...
即使英鎊兌美元，我只要看漲，那裡便會是直接走高的威脅障礙 - 雖然我真的不認為這將是扭轉的潛在走高。所以我們再次看到，小範圍內的風險似乎正在抬頭。
澳元兌美元已經在過去的2-3周保持在一定範圍。首先，它有向上的觸頭，然後下​​行，但還沒有真正取得任何顯著突破。它有潛力，但隨後並沒有真正確認下行所以也尚未有清晰的走勢畫面。
不過，雖然我不能肯定我們今天將看到更強的定向移動，但是我感覺到本週末會有清晰的天空。
祝您有個賺錢周！
伊恩•科普塞
英倫金融研究部高級顧問
國際貴金屬外匯波浪權威
原文：
A more directional week?
For the past week – 10 days – the market has been faffing around with intent but not really getting anywhere. It’s had me frustrated, more for the lack of progress in making a more decisive move that would make or break the current structures I have. However, it can’t carry on forever. Indeed, I can’t see the deadlock not being broken this week – and preferably today. I demand it! Well, in terms of the local structure I think we could see a slightly larger expansion of the range, but it seems unlikely that the medium term range – the 10-day range – may well remain intact today. However, it’s always worth keeping an eye out for a pleasant surprise…
Having said that, the balance I see between USDJPY, EURUSD and EURJPY is quite fragile – based on EURJPY. My outlook has been for further strength in the cross. USDJPY has been laggard in its development, just like EURUSD but I have the cross needing to make a new high and it’s rather difficult to see either EURUSD or USDJPY being firm enough to achieve my preferred target. With the Greek debt issue still rumbling and none too positively the downside risk in EURUSD is always a significant issue…
Even GBPUSD, where I am bullish, is threatening to baulk at following through directly higher – although I don’t really think it will reverse the underlying move higher. So once again, the risk of limited ranges appears to be raising its head.
Even AUDUSD has been holding a range for the past 2-3 weeks. First it pokes and prods the upside, then downside but hasn’t really made any significant break. It has potential, but then it hasn’t really confirmed the downside yet so there’s no clear picture as yet.
Still, while I can’t be sure that we’ll see a stronger directional move today, I do feel by the end of this week will have clearer skies…
Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey