英倫金融：靜候市場反應…

今天週五，是點票日…很明顯，市場的流動性薄弱，非常薄弱，而我正試圖從價格的跳動和盤整走勢中進行分析的時候。我很驚訝市場瞬間產生如此大的波動。我預期今天價格會以較平緩的方式帶動今天的走勢，但明顯，市場感覺是另外的一種情況。我希望亞盤時段，所有的情況都能有所冷靜下來，美元兌日元在不到5分鐘的時間內下挫300點，並創出了比我預期的備選點位還低11個點的低位，這個預期備選目標是我1年多以前標示的…我不得不說，我並沒有預期下跌到這個程度。
同樣的，其他貨幣對也處於失控狀態，坦白說，最好還是讓市場自己冷靜下來。眨眼間2%-3%的價格波動情況，是不利於交易操作的。
忽略價格運行動能不考慮，以及目前所有標準的技術都失效的情況下，我正進一步觀察我的圖表上的價格結構。最近對價格形態結構產生些問題—因為行情發展中出現太多的價格跳動和噪音—但從我的組合來看，我仍然認為美元會成為主要受益者—英國退歐還是不退歐，從美元指數上看需要下破5月3日的價格低點即91.92。
總體而言，一旦點票結束，塵埃落定，我感覺市場會出現穩定的方向走勢，小心看待…
祝交易順利。
伊恩•科普塞
英倫金融研究部高級顧問
國際貴金屬外匯波浪權威
原文：
Waiting for the reaction…
It’s Friday. They’re counting the votes… Quite clearly, the market liquidity is thin, very thin and while I was attempting to go through the analysis the whips and swings made life difficult. However, I have been surprised how the market has moved so much. I had expected a quieter lead into the day but clearly the market felt otherwise. I had hoped that the Asian session, things should begin to calm down somewhat but a 300 point drop in USDJPY in the space of less than 5-minutes to make a new low 11 points below an alternative target I have highlighted for over one year… I have to say I was not expecting that drop.
Equally, the other currency pairs have gone haywire and frankly it will be better to allow the market to calm down. Moves of 2%-3% in a blink of an eye are not conducive to trading.
From my charts, forgetting momentum and all the standard incumbent techniques which will be irrelevant in these circumstances, I am looking at the structures. I have had problems with the structures recently – too many whips due to the lower degree noise – but from the combination I have, I still feel the Dollar is going to be the main beneficiary – Brexit or no Brexit. In the Dollar Index we’d need a break below the 3rd May low at 91.92.
In general, once the vote is over and done with, I do feel we are going to see some substantial moves. Be aware…
Good trading
Ian Copsey