英倫金融：本周行情緩慢拉開序幕--行情走勢預測

我對上週五的行情發展並沒有感到過多的驚訝。歐洲央行帶來的衝擊仍然限制了市場往突破位發展的欲望，這似乎也在4小時價格均衡雲圖指標上得到確認，目前均衡雲圖指標也壓制了美元的走勢。不能說市場沒有推動美元進一步上行的意願，但我懷疑任何價格的試探性運行都可能觸發美元上行，但估計今天不會出現這種情況。圍繞著英國退歐盟的說辭，一般來講都會（並保證會）令股票市場感到緊張。這往往至少意味著歐系貨幣今天的運行範圍相當有限。
話雖如此，英鎊兌美元已呈現了進一步的上行走勢，同時在1小時和4小時圖表內出現明顯的看漲勢頭。價格運行上方空間有限，但無論如何，仍需警惕多頭的力量發展—從1小時和4小時級別的量能得到支持。我仍然建議不要過於堅守一些突破位限制因素，過高看漲價格運行。價格運行表現往往是與歐洲大陸的情況相符，依據市場總體存在的潛在憂慮考慮。
同時，澳元符合之前預期上行到更高點位，但似乎仍然有進一步上行的風險—雖然4小時的價格運行量能開始放緩，並可能發展為4小時級別的看跌背離。我不確定這種狀況將會持續多長時間，所以仍然保持謹慎看待的態度。
在旭日上升的領土上，美元兌日元出現了些上行走勢，隨後拉動了歐元兌日元的價格運行。我不確定這些價格上漲走勢是否可以持續，所以小心處理並關注價格運行的量能。我也注意到其中4小時價格均衡雲圖是呈現上行趨勢，所以即使價格出現下跌，也只會是輕微程度的下跌。需要關注歐元兌美元和美元兌日元，相關的價格運行量能的變化情況，以便計畫下一步的方向運行…
經過前幾天之後，市場表現似乎有點迷茫，因此我們需要一步步來處理…
預祝擁有一個獲利豐厚的交易周
伊恩•科普塞
英倫金融研究部高級顧問
國際貴金屬外匯波浪權威
原文：
Slow start to the week?
I can’t say I’m too surprised with Friday’s development. The ECB shock may still limit the market’s appetite to push the boundaries and this appears to be confirmed by the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds that are currently capping the Dollar. I won’t say that the market won’t attempt to push the Dollar higher but I suspect that any attempt could see the Dollar edge higher, but I just can’t see that happening today. There’s also the rhetoric surrounding Brexit and the general (and warranted) nervousness over the equity markets. This tends to suggest a relatively limited ranging day for today in the Europeans at least.
Having said that, GBPUSD has seen further gains won bullish momentum in both hourly & 4-hour charts. It does have some limited upside factors but, nevertheless, still cautiously bullish – and supported by positive hourly & 4-hour momentum. I’d still suggest we don’t push too hard with some limiting factors not too far higher. This tends to match the Continental Europeans in terms of the underlying nervousness in the market in general.
Meanwhile, the Aussie pushed higher as I had hoped for and still has further upside risk it seems – although 4-hour momentum is beginning to slow and could develop a 4-hour bearish divergence. I’m not sure it’s going to last for a long time so still retain some caution.
Over in the Land of the Rising Sun, USDJPY made some decent gains to pull EURJPY behind it. I’m not sure these gains are sustainable at this point so do take care and note momentum. I also note that in the cross the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Cloud is rising so even if we see losses they should be shallow on the day. We shall have to keep an eye on the relative movement in both EURUSD and USDJPY in order to recognise the next directional move…
The market appears to have been a little bemused over the past few days and therefore we need to take things step by step…
Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey