英倫金融：一些模棱兩可的價格結構--行情走勢預測

昨天的價格走勢發展相當艱難。大部分貨幣對都在與小時級別和4小時級別的價格均衡雲圖抗爭，幾乎整天時間都是在嘗試突破與阻止突破之間作戰。最後以雲圖橫向整理運行並伴隨輕微破位的狀況結束了當天行情—不過這些情況都還不足以觸發後續走勢的展開。但出現了一些影響這種狀況持續發展的風險，特別是在今天的亞盤時段，突破雲層壓制的幾率更大了。
在所有貨幣對當中，英鎊兌美元率先緩步上行並成功突破4小時雲圖的壓制，後續展開進一步上漲。很可能的是，在今天開始進一步發展之前，價格的任何修正走勢將維持在雲層上方。另一個貨幣對歐元兌日元也成功衝破壓制，雖然價格在此點位的走勢並不屬於推動階段，並同時在1小時和4小時級別雲圖附近區間維持震盪，所以更多的可能是價格處於震盪下行的修正階段。
另外，從今天行情的展開情況來看，仍有些瑣碎的問題出現，伴隨價格呈現迴圈走勢的風險，但隨後出現反轉。價格運行觸及到一些關鍵點位，相應的走勢將會被觸發，因此我們需要靈活地看待可能的備選方案。但總體來看，我感覺用不了多久，我們將會看到一些更有方向性的價格運行。
即便是澳元，其價格走勢發展也具有這種雙重性。昨日價格出現了不錯的反彈，並觸及到了最低的預期目標，但從價格結構情況來看，仍保留雙向發展的可能選項。一個將會是出現相對簡單直接的修正走勢，而另一個將可能是出現複雜的修正走勢，這需要更長的運行發展時間。再次，價格的運行情況意味著我們需要抓緊跟進價格發展情況，並清楚瞭解其中特殊情況的發展…
祝交易順利。
伊恩•科普塞
英倫金融研究部高級顧問
國際貴金屬外匯波浪權威
原文：
Some ambiguous structures
That was quite a difficult day. In the majority of the pairs, price was battling with the hourly & 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds that fought a long battle over the day to try and prevent price making a breach. For these pairs the battle ended the day with the Clouds moving sideways with minor breaches – but not enough to trigger follow-through. While there are a few risks of this continuing, particularly in the Asian session, the chance for a break away from these Clouds is much stronger today.
Out of all the pairs, it was GBPUSD that first managed to wriggle itself free from the 4-hour Cloud and make further gains. Quite likely, any correction will hold above/within the Cloud before extending the move it began yesterday. The other pair that managed to break through was EURJPY although it isn’t in an impulsive phase at this point and given the swings around both hourly & 4-hour Clouds, more likely this is down to mere oscillation in a corrective phase.
Otherwise, as we begin today, there are some minor niggling issues that have risk of recycling but then reversal. It’s touch and go which will occur and therefore we’re going to need to be flexible to work with the alternatives. However, overall I do feel that we’ll see some more directional moves developing before long.
Even the Aussie has this duality. It rallied well yesterday and to the minimum target but in a structure that retains options on both sides of the market. One will be a more direct completion of the correction while the other could be a complex correction that will take longer to develop. Once again, this means we need to be fleet of foot and understand the particular outcomes that develop…
Good trading