英倫金融： 不偏不倚的定位？--行情走勢預測

從歐元兌美元和英鎊兌美元這一對“古怪組合”的走勢力度表現來看，似乎像在軋平頭寸。從5月下旬和6月初開始延續的較大幅度跌勢，市場似乎並沒有什麼欲望去持有大量的頭寸。至少，看起來似乎在為修正幅度做準備。我還沒看出相應的價格高點（英鎊兌美元-5月26日，歐元兌美元-6月8日）會在公投結果宣佈前被突破的跡象。民調顯示雙方的力量均衡，所以沒有誰願意把自己的身家押注在這麼不確定的預期上。
但從這一點上來看，仍有一些需要重新定位的情況，短期內，我認為市場不會出現過多的價格波動。似乎在1，2個貨幣對中仍會出現些有限的後續發展，在未來的幾天內有進一步下行的風險，但更大的風險是出現潛在複雜的價格修正走勢——將保持平臺型整理走勢，直到觸發更大級別的走勢方向。
澳元的運行也進一步接近了6月8日的高點—0.7504，但小時級別出現了看跌反轉信號。雖然這麼說，但價格走勢仍有機會進一步上行但預期不會突破0.7504高點。
日元貨幣對的走勢發展受到重創。我雖期待歐元兌日元進一步下行，但並不真正想看到美元兌日元下跌到如此低位元的情況—回到103.75。特別是美元兌日元，當價格運行到一些關鍵位置時需要耐心觀察其走勢情況—特別明顯的就是103.54這個低點。但是，我感覺歐元兌日元需要反彈到更高點位，似乎意味著美元兌日元需要為其價格運行提供動能，小心看待這幾個貨幣對的走勢發展…
祝交易順利。
伊恩•科普塞
英倫金融研究部高級顧問
國際貴金屬外匯波浪權威
原文：
Neutral positioning?
The strength in the “Odd Couple” – that’s EURUSD and GBPUSD – appears to me like position squaring. Following the rather deep losses from late May and early June, the market has not got the appetite to hold substantial positions. At least, that seems to be a likely reasoning for the depth of the recovery. I can’t see the respective peaks (GBPUSD – 26th May, EURUSD – 8th June) being penetrated before the Brexit results are announced. The polls have the two sides pretty much balanced so no one is going to bet their house on such flimsy expectations.
I can still see some repositioning going on but from this point, in the short term, I don’t think we’re going to see excessive moves. There appears to still be some limited follow-through in one or two currencies but other than that the risk will be for a move lower over the coming days but with a much higher risk of corrective structures – potentially complex – that will maintain a platform from where the results will trigger a more aggressive move.
Even the Aussie has approached the 8th June high at 0.7504 but there is a strong hourly bearish divergence. Having said that, there remains a chance that we could see further gains but not above 0.7504.
The JPY pairs have tumbled. I was expecting losses in EURJPY but had not really wanted to see USDJPY drop so low – back to 103.75. Particularly in USDJPY there are some fine lines that need to be observed – pretty obviously the 103.54 low. However, I feel that EURJPY needs to pop back higher and that appears to suggest that USDJPY needs to be the driver. Take care with these guys…
Good trading
Ian Copsey