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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 5.2x - 5.7x | 5.5x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 2.8x - 3.1x | 2.9x |
Fair Value | €4.82 - €5.79 | €5.31 |
Upside | -3.5% - 15.8% | 6.1% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Sogefi S.p.A. | GEF | DB:GEF |
OPmobility SE | EZM | DB:EZM |
Valeo SE | VSA2 | DB:VSA2 |
Akwel SA | MW4 | BST:MW4 |
Magna International Inc. | MGA | DB:MGA |
ElringKlinger AG | ZIL2 | XTRA:ZIL2 |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
GEF | EZM | VSA2 | MW4 | MGA | ZIL2 | ||
DB:GEF | DB:EZM | DB:VSA2 | BST:MW4 | DB:MGA | XTRA:ZIL2 | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | -6.8% | -3.6% | 0.0% | -10.4% | 0.3% | -6.4% | |
3Y CAGR | -10.0% | 6.4% | 4.9% | -14.5% | 3.2% | -16.8% | |
Latest Twelve Months | -48.0% | -4.4% | 1.5% | -22.1% | 3.5% | -42.7% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 11.0% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 9.6% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 8.7% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 10.0% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 10.7% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 5.8% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 10.9% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 5.8% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 0.31x | 0.26x | 0.30x | 0.07x | 0.37x | 0.33x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 2.9x | 4.0x | 3.2x | 0.9x | 3.9x | 5.7x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 5.4x | 6.8x | 6.7x | 1.7x | 7.7x | 51.6x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 0.9x | 3.2x | 4.0x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.5x | 5.7x | 13.1x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.2x | 5.5x | 5.7x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 105 | 105 | 105 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 548 | 577 | 606 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (275) | (275) | (275) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 273 | 302 | 330 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 63.4 | 63.4 | 63.4 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 4.30 | 4.76 | 5.21 | ||||
FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 4.30 | 4.76 | 5.21 | 5.00 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | -13.9% | -4.8% | 4.3% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | GEF | EZM | VSA2 | MW4 | MGA | ZIL2 | |
Enterprise Value | 320 | 2,673 | 6,350 | 43 | 15,204 | 592 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 58 | 672 | 3,173 | 150 | 1,059 | 124 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 4 | 452 | 424 | 2 | 1,062 | 14 | |
(-) Debt | (116) | (2,362) | (7,038) | (17) | (7,558) | (365) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (13) | (29) | (796) | (1) | (426) | (48) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 253 | 1,406 | 2,113 | 178 | 9,341 | 317 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 119.0 | 142.8 | 243.0 | 26.4 | 281.7 | 63.4 | |
Implied Stock Price | 2.13 | 9.85 | 8.70 | 6.74 | 33.16 | 5.00 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.13 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 2.13 | 9.85 | 8.70 | 6.74 | 29.22 | 5.00 | |
Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.13 | 1.00 |