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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 7.1x - 7.9x | 7.5x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 4.5x - 4.9x | 4.7x |
Fair Value | C$38.68 - C$43.53 | C$41.10 |
Upside | -19.3% - -9.2% | -14.3% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Lundin Mining Corporation | LUN | TSX:LUN |
Hudbay Minerals Inc. | HBM | TSX:HBM |
Barrick Mining Corporation | ABX | TSX:ABX |
ERAMET S.A. | ERMA.F | OTCPK:ERMA.F |
Alcoa Corporation | AA1 * | BMV:AA1* |
Teck Resources Limited | TECK.B | TSX:TECK.B |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
LUN | HBM | ABX | ERMA.F | AA1 * | TECK.B | ||
TSX:LUN | TSX:HBM | TSX:ABX | OTCPK:ERMA.F | BMV:AA1* | TSX:TECK.B | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 18.5% | 13.3% | 6.2% | -12.5% | 1.4% | -8.3% | |
3Y CAGR | -6.7% | 27.7% | -1.5% | -34.5% | -17.1% | -24.4% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 42.7% | 12.8% | 21.2% | 17.6% | 206.7% | 582.2% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 36.4% | 37.8% | 49.1% | 18.2% | 13.9% | 33.2% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 30.2% | 42.0% | 46.1% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 14.0% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 33.5% | 42.4% | 47.6% | 9.5% | 13.2% | 29.2% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 34.8% | 44.0% | 49.1% | 9.5% | 17.8% | 32.8% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 3.28x | 2.27x | 3.27x | 1.01x | 0.65x | 2.66x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 9.4x | 5.2x | 6.6x | 10.6x | 3.7x | 8.1x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 13.2x | 9.8x | 8.3x | 62.3x | 5.1x | 18.4x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.7x | 6.6x | 10.6x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.3x | 6.6x | 22.2x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.1x | 7.5x | 7.9x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 3,192 | 3,192 | 3,192 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 22,690 | 23,884 | 25,078 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (3,630) | (3,630) | (3,630) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 19,060 | 20,254 | 21,448 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 488.9 | 488.9 | 488.9 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 38.98 | 41.43 | 43.87 | ||||
FX Rate: CAD/CAD | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 38.98 | 41.43 | 43.87 | 47.94 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | -18.7% | -13.6% | -8.5% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | LUN | HBM | ABX | ERMA.F | AA1 * | TECK.B | |
Enterprise Value | 11,638 | 4,730 | 42,540 | 3,200 | 8,478 | 27,068 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 342 | 583 | 4,104 | 929 | 1,514 | 6,214 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 10 | 34 | 4,141 | 534 | 1,016 | 1,231 | |
(-) Debt | (2,101) | (1,261) | (4,727) | (2,226) | (2,657) | (9,930) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (1,137) | (93) | (9,114) | (698) | (100) | (1,145) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 8,751 | 3,992 | 36,944 | 1,739 | 8,251 | 23,438 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 856.0 | 395.0 | 1,719.5 | 32.1 | 258.9 | 488.9 | |
Implied Stock Price | 10.22 | 10.11 | 21.49 | 54.20 | 31.87 | 47.94 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.73 | 0.73 | 0.73 | 0.85 | 0.05 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 13.98 | 13.82 | 29.38 | 63.57 | 592.00 | 47.94 | |
Trading Currency | CAD | CAD | CAD | USD | MXN | CAD | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.73 | 0.73 | 0.73 | 0.85 | 0.05 | 1.00 |