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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 6.0x - 6.6x | 6.3x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 5.7x - 6.2x | 5.9x |
| Fair Value | ¥914.45 - ¥1,093 | ¥1,004 |
| Upside | -12.4% - 4.7% | -3.9% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha | 9101 | TSE:9101 |
| Azuma Shipping Co., Ltd. | 9380 | TSE:9380 |
| Japan Transcity Corporation | 9310 | TSE:9310 |
| Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Ltd. | 9107 | TSE:9107 |
| Tokyo Kisen Co.,Ltd. | 9193 | TSE:9193 |
| Iino Kaiun Kaisha, Ltd. | 9119 | TSE:9119 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 9101 | 9380 | 9310 | 9107 | 9193 | 9119 | ||
| TSE:9101 | TSE:9380 | TSE:9310 | TSE:9107 | TSE:9193 | TSE:9119 | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 20.7% | 2.5% | 11.9% | 24.4% | -3.0% | 17.9% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -0.5% | -0.4% | 5.4% | 36.0% | 16.2% | 17.5% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 15.5% | 28.0% | 15.4% | 16.8% | -35.9% | NM | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 13.7% | 4.6% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 18.9% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 13.2% | 3.8% | 9.3% | 13.5% | 13.8% | 23.5% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 14.1% | 4.9% | 10.5% | 14.5% | 9.2% | 22.0% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 14.1% | 4.9% | 10.5% | 14.5% | 9.2% | NA | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.26x | 0.27x | 0.42x | 0.21x | 0.47x | 1.44x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 1.8x | 5.4x | 4.0x | 1.5x | 5.1x | 6.8x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 3.1x | 16.9x | 6.7x | 2.2x | -11.0x | 13.7x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 1.5x | 4.0x | 5.4x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.8x | 7.9x | 10.4x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.0x | 6.3x | 6.6x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 28,328 | 28,328 | 28,328 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 169,724 | 178,657 | 187,590 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (82,272) | (82,272) | (82,272) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 87,452 | 96,385 | 105,318 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 105.8 | 105.8 | 105.8 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 826.56 | 910.98 | 995.41 | ||||
| FX Rate: JPY/JPY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 826.56 | 910.98 | 995.41 | 1,044.00 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -20.8% | -12.7% | -4.7% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 9101 | 9380 | 9310 | 9107 | 9193 | 9119 | |
| Enterprise Value | 661,126 | 10,481 | 52,679 | 224,809 | (1,334) | 192,730 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 156,012 | 5,690 | 27,033 | 204,716 | 7,891 | 13,449 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 2,221,124 | 4,169 | 33,781 | 1,288,854 | 6,945 | 26,450 | |
| (-) Debt | (738,461) | (10,808) | (37,291) | (344,860) | (2,960) | (122,070) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (51,097) | (128) | (4,382) | (29,015) | (1,038) | (101) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 2,248,704 | 9,404 | 71,820 | 1,344,504 | 9,504 | 110,458 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 426.8 | 28.1 | 62.5 | 631.8 | 10.0 | 105.8 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 5,269.00 | 335.00 | 1,149.00 | 2,128.00 | 955.00 | 1,044.00 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 5,269.00 | 335.00 | 1,149.00 | 2,128.00 | 955.00 | 1,044.00 | |
| Trading Currency | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
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