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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 7.4x - 8.2x | 7.8x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 5.5x - 6.0x | 5.8x |
| Fair Value | ¥1,633 - ¥1,923 | ¥1,778 |
| Upside | -18.5% - -4.1% | -11.3% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Early Age Co., Ltd. | 3248 | TSE:3248 |
| Keihanshin Building Co., Ltd. | 8818 | TSE:8818 |
| AMG Holdings Co.,Ltd. | 8891 | TSE:8891 |
| JALCO Holdings Inc. | 6625 | TSE:6625 |
| Intellex Co., Ltd. | 8940 | TSE:8940 |
| Sun Frontier Fudousan Co., Ltd. | 8934 | TSE:8934 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 3248 | 8818 | 8891 | 6625 | 8940 | 8934 | ||
| TSE:3248 | TSE:8818 | TSE:8891 | TSE:6625 | TSE:8940 | TSE:8934 | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 9.4% | 3.4% | 16.3% | 56.1% | -8.7% | 6.5% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 20.5% | 6.2% | 22.9% | 63.9% | -20.6% | 28.3% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 59.3% | -1.2% | 17.6% | 88.2% | 158.8% | 6.5% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 21.2% | 48.6% | 7.1% | 66.1% | 4.3% | 20.6% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 21.7% | 48.7% | 6.7% | 77.5% | 2.4% | 20.5% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 23.5% | 46.9% | 6.7% | 55.4% | 2.8% | 24.8% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 23.1% | 46.5% | 5.9% | 65.5% | 6.3% | 22.7% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 2.04x | 6.04x | 0.52x | 8.21x | 0.67x | 1.94x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 8.8x | 13.0x | 8.7x | 12.5x | 10.6x | 8.6x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 11.0x | 23.7x | 9.4x | 14.2x | 11.8x | 9.8x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 8.7x | 10.6x | 13.0x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.4x | 4.6x | 7.1x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.4x | 7.8x | 8.2x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 17,734 | 17,734 | 17,734 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 130,806 | 137,691 | 144,575 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (54,337) | (54,337) | (54,337) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 76,469 | 83,354 | 90,238 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 48.6 | 48.6 | 48.6 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 1,573.99 | 1,715.70 | 1,857.40 | ||||
| FX Rate: JPY/JPY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 1,573.99 | 1,715.70 | 1,857.40 | 2,004.00 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -21.5% | -14.4% | -7.3% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 3248 | 8818 | 8891 | 6625 | 8940 | 8934 | |
| Enterprise Value | 9,966 | 116,672 | 16,030 | 83,801 | 28,629 | 151,697 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 1,326 | 8,661 | 3,133 | 2,683 | 6,046 | 37,969 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 512 | 17,875 | 586 | 1,647 | 2,143 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (9,199) | (73,413) | (14,452) | (51,819) | (29,733) | (88,647) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (18) | (3,659) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 2,605 | 69,795 | 5,297 | 36,312 | 7,067 | 97,360 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 3.2 | 48.6 | 2.8 | 110.4 | 8.1 | 48.6 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 819.00 | 1,437.00 | 1,891.00 | 329.00 | 872.00 | 2,004.00 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 819.00 | 1,437.00 | 1,891.00 | 329.00 | 872.00 | 2,004.00 | |
| Trading Currency | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |