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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 8.5% - 7.5% | 8.0% |
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 0.0% - 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Fair Value | ¥6,525 - ¥7,426 | ¥6,837 |
| Upside | 70.9% - 94.6% | 79.1% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Mar-24 | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | |
| Revenue | 1,678,249 | 1,718,000 | 1,737,500 | 1,846,500 | 1,968,350 | 2,035,600 | 2,076,312 | 2,117,838 | 2,160,195 | 2,203,399 | 2,247,467 | |
| % Growth | 2.4% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | |
| EBITDA | 161,226 | 177,000 | 195,000 | 214,000 | 245,000 | 265,000 | 270,300 | 275,706 | 281,220 | 286,845 | 292,581 | |
| % of Revenue | 9.6% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 11.6% | 12.4% | 13.0% | 13.0% | 13.0% | 13.0% | 13.0% | 13.0% | |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | Terminal | |
| EBITDA | 177,000 | 195,000 | 214,000 | 245,000 | 265,000 | 270,300 | 275,706 | 281,220 | 286,845 | 292,581 | 292,581 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (85,500) | (89,000) | (90,000) | (105,500) | (110,500) | (112,710) | (114,964) | (117,263) | (119,609) | (122,001) | (98,343) | |
| EBIT | 91,500 | 106,000 | 124,000 | 139,500 | 154,500 | 157,590 | 160,742 | 163,957 | 167,236 | 170,580 | 194,239 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (29,280) | (33,920) | (39,680) | (44,640) | (49,440) | (50,429) | (51,437) | (52,466) | (53,515) | (54,586) | (62,156) | |
| NOPAT | 50,515 | 62,220 | 72,080 | 84,320 | 94,860 | 105,060 | 107,161 | 109,304 | 111,491 | 113,720 | 115,995 | 132,082 |
| Capital Expenditures | (81,776) | (140,000) | (109,000) | (101,500) | (103,000) | (104,500) | (103,000) | (103,500) | (103,667) | (103,389) | (103,519) | (103,519) |
| NWC Investment | (3,933) | (3,966) | (1,946) | (10,876) | (12,159) | (6,710) | (4,062) | (4,144) | (4,227) | (4,311) | (4,397) | 0 |
| (+) D&A | 86,939 | 85,500 | 89,000 | 90,000 | 105,500 | 110,500 | 112,710 | 114,964 | 117,263 | 119,609 | 122,001 | 98,343 |
| Free Cash Flow | 51,745 | 3,754 | 50,134 | 61,944 | 85,201 | 104,350 | 112,809 | 116,625 | 120,861 | 125,629 | 130,080 | 126,906 |
| % Growth | -93% | 1236% | 24% | 38% | 22% | 8% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 4% | -2% | |