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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 5.0x - 5.5x | 5.2x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 4.5x - 5.0x | 4.7x |
| Fair Value | ¥989.59 - ¥1,140 | ¥1,065 |
| Upside | -44.2% - -35.8% | -40.0% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Zuiko Corporation | 6279 | TSE:6279 |
| Iseki & Co., Ltd. | 6310 | TSE:6310 |
| TOCALO Co.,Ltd. | 3433 | TSE:3433 |
| Amada Co., Ltd. | 6113 | TSE:6113 |
| Komori Corporation | 6349 | TSE:6349 |
| MITSUI E&S Co., Ltd. | 7003 | TSE:7003 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 6279 | 6310 | 3433 | 6113 | 6349 | 7003 | ||
| TSE:6279 | TSE:6310 | TSE:3433 | TSE:6113 | TSE:6349 | TSE:7003 | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -27.6% | -5.2% | 3.3% | 5.5% | 8.9% | NM- | |
| 3Y CAGR | -41.0% | -11.8% | 2.3% | 29.3% | NM- | 159.7% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -69.6% | -6.6% | 21.1% | -9.7% | NM | -6.9% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 9.3% | 5.7% | 27.8% | 17.2% | 3.9% | 3.5% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 8.5% | 4.6% | 28.1% | 18.6% | 8.3% | 6.6% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 2.8% | 4.4% | 26.2% | 18.8% | 7.1% | 9.3% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 2.8% | 4.4% | 27.8% | 17.0% | NA | 9.3% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.96x | 0.47x | 1.68x | 0.99x | 0.01x | 0.73x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 34.1x | 10.8x | 6.0x | 5.8x | 0.2x | 7.8x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | -62.1x | 41.3x | 7.7x | 8.2x | 0.2x | 11.2x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 0.2x | 6.0x | 34.1x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | -6.7x | -1.3x | 7.2x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.0x | 5.2x | 5.5x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 28,437 | 28,437 | 28,437 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 141,693 | 149,150 | 156,608 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (43,875) | (43,875) | (43,875) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 97,818 | 105,275 | 112,733 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 100.9 | 100.9 | 100.9 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 969.57 | 1,043.49 | 1,117.41 | ||||
| FX Rate: JPY/JPY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 969.57 | 1,043.49 | 1,117.41 | 1,775.00 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -45.4% | -41.2% | -37.0% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 6279 | 6310 | 3433 | 6113 | 6349 | 7003 | |
| Enterprise Value | 19,071 | 79,318 | 87,010 | 388,266 | 1,576 | 222,951 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 15,325 | 8,200 | 17,277 | 95,600 | 49,765 | 38,886 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 721 | 15,639 | 2,919 | 697 | 25,945 | 27,362 | |
| (-) Debt | (7,573) | (75,482) | (4,178) | (13,093) | (10,378) | (105,891) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (20) | (4,261) | (4,570) | (4,681) | 0 | (4,232) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 27,524 | 23,414 | 98,458 | 466,789 | 66,908 | 179,076 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 26.5 | 22.6 | 59.5 | 321.3 | 53.1 | 100.9 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 1,040.00 | 1,035.00 | 1,656.00 | 1,453.00 | 1,261.00 | 1,775.00 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 1,040.00 | 1,035.00 | 1,656.00 | 1,453.00 | 1,261.00 | 1,775.00 | |
| Trading Currency | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |