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圖表
10 年 DCF EBITDA 退出價
股價
1,821.00
JPY
公允價值
1,768.85
JPY
Metrics
Range
Conclusion
Discount Rate
10.3% - 9.3%
9.8%
Terminal EBITDA Multiple
6.5x - 8.5x
7.5x
Fair Value
¥1,567 - ¥1,985
¥1,769
Upside
-17.2% - 4.9%
-6.5%
2.0%
Revenue 10y CAGR
9.3%
10y Avg EBITDA Margin
6.3%
Unlevered FCF 10y CAGR
10-Year DCF Model: EBITDA Exit
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儲存
股價
1,821.00
JPY
公允價值
1,768.85
JPY
看漲
-6.5%
Revenue and EBITDA
CapEx
Working Capital
D&A
Tax Rate
Discount Rate
Terminal Value
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast
(JPY in millions)
Input Projections
Fiscal Years Ending
Mar-24
Mar-25
Mar-26
Mar-27
Mar-28
Mar-29
Mar-30
Mar-31
Mar-32
Mar-33
Mar-34
Revenue
301,875
307,250
317,200
328,550
325,800
333,300
339,966
346,765
353,701
360,775
367,990
% Growth
15.1%
1.8%
3.2%
3.6%
-0.8%
2.3%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
EBITDA
28,027
24,700
32,400
32,000
31,700
30,500
31,110
31,732
32,367
33,014
33,674
% of Revenue
9.3%
8.0%
10.2%
9.7%
9.7%
9.2%
9.2%
9.2%
9.2%
9.2%
9.2%
支援算式
Calculation of Free Cash Flow
Discounting Periods
Discounting Factors
Calculation of Enterprise Value
Equity Waterfall
Historical Financials
Current Trading Multiples
Calculation of Free Cash Flow
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow
(JPY in millions)
Mar-25
Mar-26
Mar-27
Mar-28
Mar-29
Mar-30
Mar-31
Mar-32
Mar-33
Mar-34
EBITDA
24,700
32,400
32,000
31,700
30,500
31,110
31,732
32,367
33,014
33,674
Other Income / (Exp)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
D&A
(6,450)
(12,800)
(11,200)
(12,000)
(10,000)
(10,200)
(10,404)
(10,612)
(10,824)
(11,041)
EBIT
18,250
19,600
20,800
19,700
20,500
20,910
21,328
21,755
22,190
22,634
Pro forma Taxes
(2,920)
(3,136)
(3,328)
(3,152)
(3,280)
(3,346)
(3,413)
(3,481)
(3,550)
(3,621)
NOPAT
16,489
15,330
16,464
17,472
16,548
17,220
17,564
17,916
18,274
18,639
19,012
Capital Expenditures
(7,209)
(9,000)
(9,000)
(9,000)
(9,000)
(9,000)
(9,000)
(9,000)
(9,000)
(9,000)
(9,000)
NWC Investment
(6,899)
(937)
(1,735)
(1,979)
479
(1,308)
(1,162)
(1,185)
(1,209)
(1,233)
(1,258)
(+) D&A
8,397
6,450
12,800
11,200
12,000
10,000
10,200
10,404
10,612
10,824
11,041
Free Cash Flow
10,778
11,843
18,529
17,693
20,027
16,912
17,602
18,134
18,677
19,230
19,795
% Growth
10%
56%
-5%
13%
-16%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
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