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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 2.8x - 3.1x | 3.0x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 3.0x - 3.4x | 3.2x |
| Fair Value | ¥2,379 - ¥2,442 | ¥2,410 |
| Upside | 16.7% - 19.8% | 18.2% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Wagokoro Co., Ltd. | 9271 | TSE:9271 |
| Musashino Kogyo Co., Ltd. | 9635 | TSE:9635 |
| Nisshinbo Holdings Inc. | 3105 | TSE:3105 |
| Sekisui Chemical Co., Ltd. | 4204 | TSE:4204 |
| Gakken Holdings Co., Ltd. | 9470 | TSE:9470 |
| Katakura Industries Co.,Ltd. | 3001 | TSE:3001 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 9271 | 9635 | 3105 | 4204 | 9470 | 3001 | ||
| TSE:9271 | TSE:9635 | TSE:3105 | TSE:4204 | TSE:9470 | TSE:3001 | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | NM- | -19.3% | 5.1% | 1.4% | 9.7% | 4.2% | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | -19.4% | -2.5% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 4.7% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 730.8% | 2.0% | 11.0% | 7.2% | 17.5% | 7.5% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | -14.6% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 11.7% | 5.5% | 15.1% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 3.9% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 11.6% | 5.7% | 16.2% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 20.6% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 11.7% | 6.0% | 17.6% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 20.6% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 12.4% | 6.0% | 17.6% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.27x | 0.85x | 0.42x | 0.70x | 0.23x | 0.21x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.2x | 9.0x | 4.9x | 5.6x | 3.9x | 1.2x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 6.4x | 19.8x | 12.6x | 8.5x | 6.6x | 2.0x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.9x | 5.6x | 9.0x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 1.2x | 3.3x | 8.1x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 2.8x | 3.0x | 3.1x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 6,947 | 6,947 | 6,947 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 19,788 | 20,830 | 21,871 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 57,401 | 57,401 | 57,401 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 77,189 | 78,231 | 79,272 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 32.3 | 32.3 | 32.3 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 2,392.13 | 2,424.41 | 2,456.68 | ||||
| FX Rate: JPY/JPY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 2,392.13 | 2,424.41 | 2,456.68 | 2,039.00 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 17.3% | 18.9% | 20.5% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 9271 | 9635 | 3105 | 4204 | 9470 | 3001 | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,664 | 1,151 | 208,358 | 896,225 | 44,131 | 8,394 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 190 | 826 | 50,411 | 122,324 | 24,579 | 30,419 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 233 | 562 | 112,695 | 116,251 | 15,353 | 40,427 | |
| (-) Debt | (431) | (331) | (217,185) | (111,144) | (40,306) | (9,752) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (20) | 0 | (27,996) | (29,483) | (4,405) | (3,693) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 2,636 | 2,208 | 126,283 | 994,173 | 39,352 | 65,795 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 6.4 | 1.0 | 156.1 | 417.5 | 41.2 | 32.3 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 411.00 | 2,110.00 | 808.90 | 2,381.00 | 954.00 | 2,039.00 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 411.00 | 2,110.00 | 808.90 | 2,381.00 | 954.00 | 2,039.00 | |
| Trading Currency | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |