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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 11.3x - 12.5x | 11.9x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 10.0x - 11.1x | 10.5x |
| Fair Value | ¥6,043 - ¥6,683 | ¥6,363 |
| Upside | 25.2% - 38.5% | 31.9% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Coca-Cola Bottlers Japan Holdings Inc. | 2579 | TSE:2579 |
| Kirin Holdings Company, Limited | 2503 | TSE:2503 |
| Asahi Group Holdings, Ltd. | 2502 | TSE:2502 |
| Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. | KDP | NasdaqGS:KDP |
| Constellation Brands, Inc. | STZ | NYSE:STZ |
| Suntory Beverage & Food Limited | 2587 | TSE:2587 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 2579 | 2503 | 2502 | KDP | STZ | 2587 | ||
| TSE:2579 | TSE:2503 | TSE:2502 | NasdaqGS:KDP | NYSE:STZ | TSE:2587 | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -6.5% | 2.5% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 3.9% | 7.0% | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | 9.1% | 11.5% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 10.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 284.7% | 3.4% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 9.4% | 16.7% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | -0.1% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 22.8% | 33.1% | 9.5% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 0.4% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 21.7% | 31.4% | 9.2% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 1.5% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 22.1% | 32.0% | 10.0% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 1.5% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 22.1% | 34.1% | 10.0% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.51x | 1.09x | 1.32x | 4.16x | 4.45x | 0.90x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.8x | 8.9x | 9.1x | 15.5x | 11.6x | 6.7x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 34.3x | 13.4x | 14.4x | 18.8x | 13.1x | 9.0x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 13.1x | 14.4x | 34.3x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 9.0x | 10.8x | 11.6x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 11.3x | 11.9x | 12.5x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 169,976 | 169,976 | 169,976 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 1,918,563 | 2,019,540 | 2,120,517 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (11,135) | (11,135) | (11,135) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 1,907,428 | 2,008,405 | 2,109,382 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 309.0 | 309.0 | 309.0 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 6,172.91 | 6,499.69 | 6,826.48 | ||||
| FX Rate: JPY/JPY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 6,172.91 | 6,499.69 | 6,826.48 | 4,826.00 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 27.9% | 34.7% | 41.5% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 2579 | 2503 | 2502 | KDP | STZ | 2587 | |
| Enterprise Value | 458,846 | 2,519,630 | 3,847,192 | 63,864 | 45,009 | 1,502,369 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 88,473 | 118,617 | 83,961 | 510 | 74 | 165,051 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 15,765 | 216,205 | 214,703 | 1,632 | 311 | 14,775 | |
| (-) Debt | (142,664) | (857,569) | (1,279,176) | (18,330) | (12,120) | (85,271) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (240) | (352,189) | (5,250) | 0 | (254) | (105,690) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 420,180 | 1,644,694 | 2,861,430 | 47,676 | 33,020 | 1,491,234 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 176.5 | 810.0 | 1,502.9 | 1,356.8 | 180.7 | 309.0 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 2,380.00 | 2,030.50 | 1,904.00 | 35.14 | 182.73 | 4,826.00 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 2,380.00 | 2,030.50 | 1,904.00 | 35.14 | 182.73 | 4,826.00 | |
| Trading Currency | JPY | JPY | JPY | USD | USD | JPY | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |