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穩健度
圖表
10 年 DCF 增長退出價
股價
21.45
TWD
公允價值
19.51
TWD
Metrics
Range
Conclusion
Discount Rate
11.0% - 10.0%
10.5%
Perpetuity Growth Rate
7.0% - 8.0%
7.5%
Fair Value
NT$ 8.58 - NT$ 41.43
NT$ 19.51
Upside
-60.3% - 91.8%
-9.7%
3.7%
Revenue 10y CAGR
63.2%
10y Avg EBITDA Margin
NM
Unlevered FCF 10y CAGR
10-Year DCF Model: Gordon Growth Exit
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儲存
股價
21.45
TWD
公允價值
19.51
TWD
看漲
-9.7%
Revenue and EBITDA
CapEx
Working Capital
D&A
Tax Rate
Discount Rate
Terminal Value
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast
(TWD in millions)
Input Projections
Fiscal Years Ending
Dec-24
Dec-25
Dec-26
Dec-27
Dec-28
Dec-29
Dec-30
Dec-31
Dec-32
Dec-33
Dec-34
Revenue
1,654
1,861
2,001
2,071
2,112
2,154
2,198
2,242
2,286
2,332
2,379
% Growth
23.7%
12.5%
7.5%
3.5%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
EBITDA
1,003
1,159
1,266
1,310
1,336
1,363
1,390
1,418
1,446
1,475
1,505
% of Revenue
60.6%
62.3%
63.3%
63.3%
63.3%
63.3%
63.3%
63.3%
63.3%
63.3%
63.3%
支援算式
Calculation of Free Cash Flow
Discounting Periods
Discounting Factors
Calculation of Enterprise Value
Equity Waterfall
Historical Financials
Current Trading Multiples
Calculation of Free Cash Flow
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow
(TWD in millions)
Dec-25
Dec-26
Dec-27
Dec-28
Dec-29
Dec-30
Dec-31
Dec-32
Dec-33
Dec-34
Terminal
EBITDA
1,159
1,266
1,310
1,336
1,363
1,390
1,418
1,446
1,475
1,505
1,505
Other Income / (Exp)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
D&A
(352)
(379)
(392)
(400)
(408)
(416)
(424)
(433)
(442)
(450)
(406)
EBIT
806
887
918
936
955
974
993
1,013
1,034
1,054
1,099
Pro forma Taxes
(89)
(98)
(101)
(103)
(105)
(107)
(109)
(111)
(114)
(116)
(121)
NOPAT
602
718
789
817
833
850
867
884
902
920
938
978
Capital Expenditures
(2,374)
(1,908)
(2,266)
(2,183)
(2,119)
(2,189)
(416)
(424)
(433)
(425)
(427)
(427)
NWC Investment
(153)
(100)
(68)
(34)
(20)
(20)
(21)
(21)
(22)
(22)
(23)
(86)
(+) D&A
327
352
379
392
400
408
416
424
433
442
450
406
Free Cash Flow
(1,599)
(938)
(1,166)
(1,008)
(906)
(952)
846
863
880
915
939
870
% Growth
NM
NM
NM
NM
NM
NM
2%
2%
4%
3%
-7%
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