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圖表
10 年 DCF EBITDA 退出價
股價
38.97
CNY
公允價值
29.31
CNY
Metrics
Range
Conclusion
Discount Rate
10.3% - 9.3%
9.8%
Terminal EBITDA Multiple
15.6x - 17.6x
16.6x
Fair Value
¥27.08 - ¥31.68
¥29.31
Upside
-30.3% - -18.5%
-24.6%
7.5%
Revenue 10y CAGR
12.1%
10y Avg EBITDA Margin
NM
Unlevered FCF 10y CAGR
10-Year DCF Model: EBITDA Exit
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儲存
股價
38.97
CNY
公允價值
29.31
CNY
看漲
-24.6%
Revenue and EBITDA
CapEx
Working Capital
D&A
Tax Rate
Discount Rate
Terminal Value
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast
(CNY in millions)
Input Projections
Fiscal Years Ending
Dec-23
Dec-24
Dec-25
Dec-26
Dec-27
Dec-28
Dec-29
Dec-30
Dec-31
Dec-32
Dec-33
Revenue
1,756
1,996
2,317
2,680
3,015
3,241
3,355
3,422
3,490
3,560
3,631
% Growth
56.0%
13.7%
16.1%
15.7%
12.5%
7.5%
3.5%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
EBITDA
147
177
216
266
375
435
450
459
469
478
487
% of Revenue
8.4%
8.9%
9.3%
9.9%
12.4%
13.4%
13.4%
13.4%
13.4%
13.4%
13.4%
支援算式
Calculation of Free Cash Flow
Discounting Periods
Discounting Factors
Calculation of Enterprise Value
Equity Waterfall
Historical Financials
Current Trading Multiples
Calculation of Free Cash Flow
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow
(CNY in millions)
Dec-24
Dec-25
Dec-26
Dec-27
Dec-28
Dec-29
Dec-30
Dec-31
Dec-32
Dec-33
EBITDA
177
216
266
375
435
450
459
469
478
487
Other Income / (Exp)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
D&A
(8)
(20)
(31)
(35)
(37)
(39)
(40)
(40)
(41)
(42)
EBIT
169
196
235
340
398
412
420
428
437
445
Pro forma Taxes
(17)
(20)
(24)
(34)
(40)
(41)
(42)
(43)
(44)
(45)
NOPAT
102
152
176
212
306
358
370
378
385
393
401
Capital Expenditures
(108)
(200)
(200)
(200)
(225)
(242)
(222)
(227)
(230)
(226)
(228)
NWC Investment
(163)
(62)
(83)
(94)
(87)
(58)
(29)
(17)
(18)
(18)
(18)
(+) D&A
34
8
20
31
35
37
39
40
40
41
42
Free Cash Flow
(135)
(102)
(87)
(51)
29
95
158
173
178
190
197
% Growth
NM
NM
NM
NM
227%
66%
10%
3%
7%
4%
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