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模型
財務狀況
比較
穩健度
圖表
10 年 DCF 增長退出價
股價
19.61
CNY
公允價值
26.18
CNY
Metrics
Range
Conclusion
Discount Rate
11.8% - 10.8%
11.3%
Perpetuity Growth Rate
0.8% - 1.8%
1.3%
Fair Value
¥24.18 - ¥28.61
¥26.18
Upside
20.5% - 42.6%
30.5%
10.5%
Revenue 10y CAGR
10.6%
10y Avg EBITDA Margin
18.1%
Unlevered FCF 10y CAGR
10-Year DCF Model: Gordon Growth Exit
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儲存
股價
19.61
CNY
公允價值
26.18
CNY
看漲
30.5%
Revenue and EBITDA
CapEx
Working Capital
D&A
Tax Rate
Discount Rate
Terminal Value
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast
(CNY in millions)
Input Projections
Fiscal Years Ending
Dec-23
Dec-24
Dec-25
Dec-26
Dec-27
Dec-28
Dec-29
Dec-30
Dec-31
Dec-32
Dec-33
Revenue
6,074
8,022
9,924
12,145
13,663
14,687
15,202
15,506
15,816
16,132
16,455
% Growth
11.3%
32.1%
23.7%
22.4%
12.5%
7.5%
3.5%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
EBITDA
472
629
842
1,007
1,474
1,732
1,793
1,828
1,865
1,902
1,940
% of Revenue
7.8%
7.8%
8.5%
8.3%
10.8%
11.8%
11.8%
11.8%
11.8%
11.8%
11.8%
支援算式
Calculation of Free Cash Flow
Discounting Periods
Discounting Factors
Calculation of Enterprise Value
Equity Waterfall
Historical Financials
Current Trading Multiples
Calculation of Free Cash Flow
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow
(CNY in millions)
Dec-24
Dec-25
Dec-26
Dec-27
Dec-28
Dec-29
Dec-30
Dec-31
Dec-32
Dec-33
Terminal
EBITDA
629
842
1,007
1,474
1,732
1,793
1,828
1,865
1,902
1,940
1,940
Other Income / (Exp)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
D&A
(142)
(167)
(143)
(161)
(173)
(179)
(183)
(187)
(190)
(194)
(209)
EBIT
487
674
864
1,313
1,559
1,613
1,645
1,678
1,712
1,746
1,731
Pro forma Taxes
(93)
(128)
(164)
(249)
(296)
(306)
(313)
(319)
(325)
(332)
(329)
NOPAT
377
394
546
700
1,064
1,262
1,307
1,333
1,359
1,387
1,414
1,402
Capital Expenditures
(11)
(265)
(181)
(193)
(217)
(233)
(215)
(219)
(222)
(219)
(220)
(220)
NWC Investment
(121)
(380)
(371)
(434)
(296)
(200)
(100)
(59)
(61)
(62)
(63)
(40)
(+) D&A
7
142
167
143
161
173
179
183
187
190
194
209
Free Cash Flow
252
(109)
161
216
711
1,002
1,171
1,238
1,263
1,297
1,326
1,351
% Growth
NM
NM
34%
229%
41%
17%
6%
2%
3%
2%
2%
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