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1565
4.7%
003032
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6913
3.6%
HK
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股息
財報
模型
財務狀況
比較
穩健度
圖表
10 年 DCF EBITDA 退出價
股價
16.80
CNY
公允價值
16.42
CNY
Metrics
Range
Conclusion
Discount Rate
9.8% - 8.8%
9.3%
Terminal EBITDA Multiple
30.7x - 32.7x
31.7x
Fair Value
¥15.95 - ¥16.92
¥16.42
Upside
-4.3% - 1.6%
-1.4%
0.0%
Revenue 10y CAGR
15.0%
10y Avg EBITDA Margin
-1.4%
Unlevered FCF 10y CAGR
10-Year DCF Model: EBITDA Exit
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儲存
股價
16.80
CNY
公允價值
16.42
CNY
看漲
-1.4%
Revenue and EBITDA
CapEx
Working Capital
D&A
Tax Rate
Discount Rate
Terminal Value
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast
(CNY in millions)
Input Projections
Fiscal Years Ending
Dec-23
Dec-24
Dec-25
Dec-26
Dec-27
Dec-28
Dec-29
Dec-30
Dec-31
Dec-32
Dec-33
Revenue
529
529
529
529
529
529
529
529
529
529
529
% Growth
-33.4%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
EBITDA
17
79
79
79
79
79
79
79
79
79
79
% of Revenue
3.2%
15.0%
15.0%
15.0%
15.0%
15.0%
15.0%
15.0%
15.0%
15.0%
15.0%
支援算式
Calculation of Free Cash Flow
Discounting Periods
Discounting Factors
Calculation of Enterprise Value
Equity Waterfall
Historical Financials
Current Trading Multiples
Calculation of Free Cash Flow
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow
(CNY in millions)
Dec-24
Dec-25
Dec-26
Dec-27
Dec-28
Dec-29
Dec-30
Dec-31
Dec-32
Dec-33
EBITDA
79
79
79
79
79
79
79
79
79
79
Other Income / (Exp)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
D&A
(2)
(2)
(2)
(2)
(2)
(2)
(2)
(2)
(2)
(2)
EBIT
77
77
77
77
77
77
77
77
77
77
Pro forma Taxes
(13)
(13)
(13)
(13)
(13)
(13)
(13)
(13)
(13)
(13)
NOPAT
12
64
64
64
64
64
64
64
64
64
64
Capital Expenditures
(31)
(18)
(22)
(24)
(24)
(24)
(24)
(24)
(24)
(24)
(24)
NWC Investment
65
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
(+) D&A
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
Free Cash Flow
49
48
44
42
42
42
42
42
42
42
42
% Growth
-2%
-8%
-4%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
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