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301073 -9.0%002159 -5.0%603136 -5.0%

觀察名單觀點 ProPicks AI 篩選器數據瀏覽圖表已儲存工作 WarrenAI

西域旅遊

SZSE:300859

中國 / 非必需消費品 / 酒店、餐廳和休閒

10 年 DCF 增長退出價

股價

36.65 CNY

公允價值

34.72 CNY

Metrics	Range	Conclusion
Discount Rate	10.0% - 9.0%	9.5%
Perpetuity Growth Rate	0.2% - 1.3%	0.8%
Fair Value	¥32.02 - ¥38.10	¥34.72
Upside	-12.6% - 3.9%	-5.3%

13.9%

Revenue 10y CAGR

59.6%

10y Avg EBITDA Margin

NM

Unlevered FCF 10y CAGR

10-Year DCF Model: Gordon Growth Exit

股價

36.65 CNY

公允價值

34.72 CNY

看漲

-5.3%

Revenue and EBITDA

CapEx

Working Capital

D&A

Tax Rate

Discount Rate

Terminal Value


Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast

(CNY in millions)		Input Projections
Fiscal Years Ending	Dec-24	Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Dec-32	Dec-33	Dec-34

Revenue	304	497	688	826	929	998	1,033	1,054	1,075	1,097	1,119
% Growth	-0.5%	63.6%	38.4%	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%	3.5%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%

EBITDA	136	231	372	487	572	624	646	659	672	686	700
% of Revenue	44.7%	46.5%	54.0%	59.0%	61.5%	62.5%	62.5%	62.5%	62.5%	62.5%	62.5%

支援算式

Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Discounting Periods

Discounting Factors

Calculation of Enterprise Value

Equity Waterfall

Historical Financials

Current Trading Multiples


Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Projected Unlevered Cash Flow
(CNY in millions)		Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Dec-32	Dec-33	Dec-34	Terminal

EBITDA		231	372	487	572	624	646	659	672	686	700	700
Other Income / (Exp)		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D&A		(18)	(32)	(38)	(43)	(46)	(48)	(49)	(50)	(51)	(52)	(88)

EBIT		213	340	449	529	578	599	611	623	635	648	612
Pro forma Taxes		(30)	(48)	(63)	(74)	(81)	(84)	(85)	(87)	(89)	(91)	(86)
NOPAT	87	183	292	386	455	497	515	525	536	546	557	526

Capital Expenditures	(232)	(5)	(6)	(81)	(91)	(98)	(90)	(92)	(93)	(92)	(92)	(92)
NWC Investment	(0)	18	18	13	10	6	3	2	2	2	2	1
(+) D&A	34	18	32	38	43	46	48	49	50	51	52	88

Free Cash Flow	(111)	214	336	356	416	452	476	484	494	507	518	522
% Growth		NM	57%	6%	17%	9%	5%	2%	2%	3%	2%	1%

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