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股息
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模型
財務狀況
比較
穩健度
圖表
10 年 DCF EBITDA 退出價
股價
5.96
CNY
公允價值
4.45
CNY
Metrics
Range
Conclusion
Discount Rate
9.5% - 8.5%
9.0%
Terminal EBITDA Multiple
146.3x - 148.3x
147.3x
Fair Value
¥4.29 - ¥4.62
¥4.45
Upside
-32.2% - -26.9%
-29.6%
2.0%
Revenue 10y CAGR
3.8%
10y Avg EBITDA Margin
NM
Unlevered FCF 10y CAGR
10-Year DCF Model: EBITDA Exit
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儲存
股價
5.96
CNY
公允價值
4.45
CNY
看漲
-29.6%
Revenue and EBITDA
CapEx
Working Capital
D&A
Tax Rate
Discount Rate
Terminal Value
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast
(CNY in millions)
Input Projections
Fiscal Years Ending
Dec-24
Dec-25
Dec-26
Dec-27
Dec-28
Dec-29
Dec-30
Dec-31
Dec-32
Dec-33
Dec-34
Revenue
474
484
494
503
513
524
534
545
556
567
578
% Growth
4.4%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
EBITDA
20
18
19
19
19
20
20
21
21
21
22
% of Revenue
4.3%
3.8%
3.8%
3.8%
3.8%
3.8%
3.8%
3.8%
3.8%
3.8%
3.8%
支援算式
Calculation of Free Cash Flow
Discounting Periods
Discounting Factors
Calculation of Enterprise Value
Equity Waterfall
Historical Financials
Current Trading Multiples
Calculation of Free Cash Flow
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow
(CNY in millions)
Dec-25
Dec-26
Dec-27
Dec-28
Dec-29
Dec-30
Dec-31
Dec-32
Dec-33
Dec-34
EBITDA
18
19
19
19
20
20
21
21
21
22
Other Income / (Exp)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
D&A
(35)
(35)
(36)
(37)
(37)
(38)
(39)
(40)
(40)
(41)
EBIT
(16)
(17)
(17)
(17)
(18)
(18)
(18)
(19)
(19)
(19)
Pro forma Taxes
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
NOPAT
(11)
(16)
(17)
(17)
(17)
(18)
(18)
(18)
(19)
(19)
(19)
Capital Expenditures
(9)
(24)
(25)
(25)
(26)
(26)
(26)
(26)
(26)
(26)
(26)
NWC Investment
(11)
(5)
(5)
(5)
(5)
(5)
(6)
(6)
(6)
(6)
(6)
(+) D&A
33
35
35
36
37
37
38
39
40
40
41
Free Cash Flow
2
(11)
(11)
(12)
(12)
(12)
(11)
(11)
(11)
(11)
(10)
% Growth
NM
NM
NM
NM
NM
NM
NM
NM
NM
NM
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