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模型
財務狀況
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穩健度
圖表
10 年 DCF EBITDA 退出價
股價
16.23
CNY
公允價值
10.90
CNY
Metrics
Range
Conclusion
Discount Rate
10.3% - 9.3%
9.8%
Terminal EBITDA Multiple
71.2x - 73.2x
72.2x
Fair Value
¥10.50 - ¥11.32
¥10.90
Upside
-36.6% - -31.7%
-34.2%
2.0%
Revenue 10y CAGR
9.0%
10y Avg EBITDA Margin
-14.9%
Unlevered FCF 10y CAGR
10-Year DCF Model: EBITDA Exit
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儲存
股價
16.23
CNY
公允價值
10.90
CNY
看漲
-34.2%
Revenue and EBITDA
CapEx
Working Capital
D&A
Tax Rate
Discount Rate
Terminal Value
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast
(CNY in millions)
Input Projections
Fiscal Years Ending
Dec-24
Dec-25
Dec-26
Dec-27
Dec-28
Dec-29
Dec-30
Dec-31
Dec-32
Dec-33
Dec-34
Revenue
1,030
1,051
1,072
1,094
1,115
1,138
1,160
1,184
1,207
1,232
1,256
% Growth
4.5%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
EBITDA
65
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
113
% of Revenue
6.3%
9.0%
9.0%
9.0%
9.0%
9.0%
9.0%
9.0%
9.0%
9.0%
9.0%
支援算式
Calculation of Free Cash Flow
Discounting Periods
Discounting Factors
Calculation of Enterprise Value
Equity Waterfall
Historical Financials
Current Trading Multiples
Calculation of Free Cash Flow
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow
(CNY in millions)
Dec-25
Dec-26
Dec-27
Dec-28
Dec-29
Dec-30
Dec-31
Dec-32
Dec-33
Dec-34
EBITDA
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
113
Other Income / (Exp)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
D&A
(38)
(39)
(40)
(41)
(42)
(42)
(43)
(44)
(45)
(46)
EBIT
56
57
58
59
60
62
63
64
65
67
Pro forma Taxes
(9)
(9)
(9)
(9)
(10)
(10)
(10)
(10)
(10)
(11)
NOPAT
25
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
Capital Expenditures
(124)
(95)
(97)
(105)
(108)
(110)
(108)
(108)
(109)
(108)
(108)
NWC Investment
(18)
(8)
(8)
(9)
(9)
(9)
(9)
(9)
(9)
(10)
(10)
(+) D&A
35
38
39
40
41
42
42
43
44
45
46
Free Cash Flow
(81)
(18)
(19)
(25)
(26)
(26)
(23)
(22)
(20)
(18)
(16)
% Growth
NM
NM
NM
NM
NM
NM
NM
NM
NM
NM
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