華宏科技

SZSE:002645

中國 / 工業 / 機械

綜觀

股息

10 年 DCF EBITDA 退出價

股價

9.27 CNY

公允價值

9.87 CNY

Metrics	Range	Conclusion
Discount Rate	10.0% - 9.0%	9.5%
Terminal EBITDA Multiple	9.4x - 11.4x	10.4x
Fair Value	¥8.89 - ¥10.91	¥9.87
Upside	-7.9% - 13.0%	2.2%

4.7%

Revenue 10y CAGR

7.0%

10y Avg EBITDA Margin

23.6%

Unlevered FCF 10y CAGR

10-Year DCF Model: EBITDA Exit

股價

9.27 CNY

公允價值

9.87 CNY

看漲

2.2%

Revenue and EBITDA

CapEx

Working Capital

D&A

Tax Rate

Discount Rate

Terminal Value


Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast

(CNY in millions)		Input Projections
Fiscal Years Ending	Dec-23	Dec-24	Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Dec-32	Dec-33

Revenue	6,881	5,537	7,969	8,853	9,517	9,850	10,047	10,248	10,453	10,662	10,875
% Growth	-18.8%	-19.5%	43.9%	11.1%	7.5%	3.5%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%

EBITDA	-165	227	472	583	722	747	762	777	793	809	825
% of Revenue	-2.4%	4.1%	5.9%	6.6%	7.6%	7.6%	7.6%	7.6%	7.6%	7.6%	7.6%

支援算式

Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Discounting Periods

Discounting Factors

Calculation of Enterprise Value

Equity Waterfall

Historical Financials

Current Trading Multiples


Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Projected Unlevered Cash Flow
(CNY in millions)		Dec-24	Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Dec-32	Dec-33

EBITDA		227	472	583	722	747	762	777	793	809	825
Other Income / (Exp)		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D&A		(109)	(113)	(115)	(124)	(128)	(131)	(133)	(136)	(138)	(141)

EBIT		118	359	468	598	619	632	644	657	670	684
Pro forma Taxes		(11)	(32)	(42)	(54)	(56)	(57)	(58)	(59)	(60)	(62)
NOPAT	(251)	107	327	426	544	563	575	586	598	610	622

Capital Expenditures	(191)	(104)	(105)	(105)	(150)	(150)	(135)	(138)	(140)	(138)	(139)
NWC Investment	399	337	(609)	(222)	(166)	(83)	(49)	(50)	(51)	(52)	(53)
(+) D&A	111	109	113	115	124	128	131	133	136	138	141

Free Cash Flow	69	449	(274)	214	352	458	521	531	542	558	571
% Growth		551%	NM	NM	64%	30%	14%	2%	2%	3%	2%

載入錯誤

華宏科技

SZSE:002645

中國 / 工業 / 機械

10 年 DCF EBITDA 退出價