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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 19.2x - 21.2x | 20.2x |
Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 18.6x - 20.5x | 19.6x |
Fair Value | ¥4.14 - ¥4.56 | ¥4.35 |
Upside | 15.1% - 26.6% | 20.9% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Pacific Millennium Packaging Group Corporation | 1820 | SEHK:1820 |
Rengo Co., Ltd. | 3941 | TSE:3941 |
Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging Co., Ltd. | 301296 | SZSE:301296 |
Guangdong Tengen Industrial Group Co.,Ltd. | 3003 | SZSE:003003 |
Zhejiang Hengda New Material Co.,Ltd. | 301469 | SZSE:301469 |
MYS Group Co., Ltd. | 2303 | SZSE:002303 |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
1820 | 3941 | 301296 | 3003 | 301469 | 2303 | ||
SEHK:1820 | TSE:3941 | SZSE:301296 | SZSE:003003 | SZSE:301469 | SZSE:002303 | ||
Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | -38.6% | 14.1% | 6.6% | -6.3% | 6.9% | -6.8% | |
3Y CAGR | -47.2% | 6.9% | 2.5% | 2.2% | -18.0% | 41.9% | |
Latest Twelve Months | -78.7% | -12.5% | -3.4% | -11.2% | -31.4% | 25.3% | |
Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 3.7% | 4.8% | 14.1% | 3.2% | 11.6% | 5.4% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 2.8% | 3.1% | 12.9% | 4.1% | 10.8% | 6.7% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 0.6% | 5.4% | 12.6% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.7% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 0.6% | 4.2% | 12.6% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.9% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 0.93x | 0.42x | 2.82x | 1.90x | 1.88x | 1.24x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 22.1x | 4.2x | 18.3x | 19.9x | 17.8x | 11.2x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 164.0x | 10.2x | 22.3x | 35.3x | 30.4x | 15.8x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 10.2x | 30.4x | 164.0x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 14.0x | 27.8x | 81.0x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 19.2x | 20.2x | 21.2x | ||||
(x) LTM EBIT | 326 | 326 | 326 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 6,235 | 6,563 | 6,892 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 350 | 350 | 350 | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 6,586 | 6,914 | 7,242 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 1,531.3 | 1,531.3 | 1,531.3 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 4.30 | 4.51 | 4.73 | ||||
FX Rate: CNY/CNY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 4.30 | 4.51 | 4.73 | 3.60 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | 19.5% | 25.4% | 31.4% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | 1820 | 3941 | 301296 | 3003 | 301469 | 2303 | |
Enterprise Value | 1,993 | 405,175 | 2,358 | 1,981 | 1,872 | 5,162 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 124 | 90,201 | 654 | 320 | 458 | 1,833 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 0 | 192,548 | 909 | 0 | 6 | 40 | |
(-) Debt | (998) | (457,501) | (246) | (220) | (135) | (1,459) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (36,037) | 0 | 0 | 0 | (64) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 1,119 | 194,386 | 3,675 | 2,081 | 2,201 | 5,513 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 300.6 | 247.8 | 416.6 | 174.4 | 88.4 | 1,531.3 | |
Implied Stock Price | 3.72 | 784.40 | 8.82 | 11.93 | 24.89 | 3.60 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.93 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 4.00 | 784.40 | 8.82 | 11.93 | 24.89 | 3.60 | |
Trading Currency | HKD | JPY | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.93 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |