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002700 -4.5%532514 3.6%9534 -3.1%

觀察名單觀點 ProPicks AI 篩選器數據瀏覽圖表已儲存工作

陝天然氣

SZSE:002267

中國 / 公用事業 / 燃氣公用事業

DDM 多階段

股價

8.10 CNY

公允價值

16.18 CNY

Metrics	Range	Conclusion
Perpetuity Growth Rate	6.3% - 6.8%	6.5%
Discount Rate	11.3% - 10.3%	10.8%
Fair Value	¥13.89 - ¥19.44	¥16.18
Upside	71.3% - 139.7%	99.5%

0.40

Current Dividend per Share

4.9%

Current Dividend Yield

36.0%

3yr Avg Div Growth

-2.8%

Ytd Div Growth

Dividend Discount Model: Multi Stage

股價

8.10 CNY

公允價值

16.18 CNY

看漲

99.5%

Project Adj Dividends

Perpetuity Growth Rate

Fair Value


Project Adjusted Dividends

		Fiscal Year Ending
(CNY in millions)	Dec-23	Dec-24	Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27		Dec-28	Terminal

Net Income to Common	544	685	850	923	941		960	960
% Growth	-11.6%	25.9%	24.1%	8.5%	2.0%		2.0%

Payout Ratio	82.7%	84.0%	85.0%	86.0%	87.0%		90.0%	92.5%

Projected Dividends	450	575	723	793	819		864	888
% Growth		27.8%	25.6%	9.8%	3.2%		5.5%

支援算式

Historical Performance

Discounting Periods

Discounting Factors

Pv of Discrete Dividends

Pv of Terminal Dividends


Historical Performance

	Fiscal Year Ending						YTD	YTD
(CNY in millions)	Dec-19	Dec-20	Dec-21	Dec-22	Dec-23		Sep-23	Sep-24

Cash Dividends Paid	266	300	309	759	450		428	416
% Growth		13%	3%	145%	-41%			-3%

Net Income to Common	456	357	421	616	544		307	523
% Growth		-22%	18%	46%	-12%			71%

Payout Ratio	58%	84%	73%	123%	83%		140%	79%
Retention Ratio	42%	16%	27%	-23%	17%		-40%	21%

Adjusted EBITDA	1,107	960	1,011	1,321	1,220		788	1,040
% Growth		-13%	5%	31%	-8%			32%

Total Debt	2,995	3,464	2,846	3,135	3,127		3,264	3,306
Shareholder's Equity	6,129	6,148	6,364	6,320	6,561		6,350	6,815

Debt / EBITDA	2.7	3.6	2.8	2.4	2.6			2.2
Debt / Equity	49%	56%	45%	50%	48%		51%	49%


3-Yr Avg. Dividend Growth	36.0%
5-Yr Median Payout Ratio	82.7%

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