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世榮兆業
SZSE:002016
中國 / 地產 / 房地產管理及開發
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股息
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模型
財務狀況
比較
穩健度
圖表
10 年 DCF 增長退出價
股價
5.84
CNY
公允價值
10.68
CNY
Metrics
Range
Conclusion
Discount Rate
8.5% - 7.5%
8.0%
Perpetuity Growth Rate
0.0% - 0.5%
0.0%
Fair Value
¥9.53 - ¥12.93
¥10.68
Upside
61.3% - 118.7%
80.7%
13.0%
Revenue 10y CAGR
46.5%
10y Avg EBITDA Margin
NM
Unlevered FCF 10y CAGR
10-Year DCF Model: Gordon Growth Exit
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儲存
股價
5.84
CNY
公允價值
10.68
CNY
看漲
80.7%
Revenue and EBITDA
CapEx
Working Capital
D&A
Tax Rate
Discount Rate
Terminal Value
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast
(CNY in millions)
Input Projections
Fiscal Years Ending
Dec-23
Dec-24
Dec-25
Dec-26
Dec-27
Dec-28
Dec-29
Dec-30
Dec-31
Dec-32
Dec-33
Revenue
1,548
2,400
3,239
3,887
4,373
4,701
4,866
4,963
5,062
5,164
5,267
% Growth
86.2%
55.0%
35.0%
20.0%
12.5%
7.5%
3.5%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
EBITDA
319
801
1,325
1,784
2,117
2,322
2,404
2,452
2,501
2,551
2,602
% of Revenue
20.6%
33.4%
40.9%
45.9%
48.4%
49.4%
49.4%
49.4%
49.4%
49.4%
49.4%
支援算式
Calculation of Free Cash Flow
Discounting Periods
Discounting Factors
Calculation of Enterprise Value
Equity Waterfall
Historical Financials
Current Trading Multiples
Calculation of Free Cash Flow
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow
(CNY in millions)
Dec-24
Dec-25
Dec-26
Dec-27
Dec-28
Dec-29
Dec-30
Dec-31
Dec-32
Dec-33
Terminal
EBITDA
801
1,325
1,784
2,117
2,322
2,404
2,452
2,501
2,551
2,602
2,602
Other Income / (Exp)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
D&A
(25)
(33)
(40)
(45)
(49)
(50)
(51)
(52)
(53)
(54)
(631)
EBIT
777
1,292
1,744
2,072
2,274
2,354
2,401
2,449
2,498
2,548
1,971
Pro forma Taxes
(217)
(362)
(488)
(580)
(637)
(659)
(672)
(686)
(699)
(713)
(552)
NOPAT
217
559
930
1,256
1,492
1,637
1,695
1,728
1,763
1,798
1,834
1,419
Capital Expenditures
(331)
(388)
(524)
(583)
(656)
(705)
(648)
(661)
(671)
(660)
(664)
(664)
NWC Investment
(1,314)
(1,560)
(1,539)
(1,187)
(891)
(601)
(302)
(178)
(182)
(186)
(189)
0
(+) D&A
17
25
33
40
45
49
50
51
52
53
54
631
Free Cash Flow
(1,410)
(1,365)
(1,100)
(475)
(10)
379
795
940
962
1,006
1,035
1,386
% Growth
NM
NM
NM
NM
NM
110%
18%
2%
5%
3%
34%
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