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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 22.6x - 25.0x | 23.8x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 20.9x - 23.1x | 22.0x |
| Fair Value | ¥4.26 - ¥4.59 | ¥4.43 |
| Upside | 5.0% - 13.2% | 9.1% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Guangshen Railway Company Limited | 601333 | SHSE:601333 |
| Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co., Ltd. | 601816 | SHSE:601816 |
| China Railway Tielong Container Logistics Co., Ltd | 600125 | SHSE:600125 |
| Daqin Railway Co., Ltd. | 601006 | SHSE:601006 |
| Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. | YMM | NYSE:YMM |
| China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co., Ltd. | 1213 | SZSE:001213 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 601333 | 601816 | 600125 | 601006 | YMM | 1213 | ||
| SHSE:601333 | SHSE:601816 | SHSE:600125 | SHSE:601006 | NYSE:YMM | SZSE:001213 | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 5.6% | 2.9% | -1.6% | -9.1% | NM- | 1.8% | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | 25.5% | 2.1% | -12.1% | NM- | 19.9% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -21.9% | 2.0% | 33.2% | -33.3% | 131.5% | -20.5% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | -3.2% | 32.9% | 3.8% | 18.1% | -39.5% | 5.4% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 5.6% | 43.5% | 3.7% | 18.9% | 12.7% | 6.0% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 5.4% | 44.8% | 4.4% | 14.1% | 22.0% | 6.1% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 4.7% | 44.6% | 4.9% | 12.8% | 22.0% | 5.5% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.65x | 8.31x | 0.43x | 1.02x | 5.15x | 1.16x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.4x | 14.2x | 5.6x | 5.0x | 22.7x | 9.9x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 13.7x | 18.6x | 8.8x | 8.0x | 23.4x | 21.1x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 8.0x | 13.7x | 23.4x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 20.3x | 24.9x | 52.8x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 22.6x | 23.8x | 25.0x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 621 | 621 | 621 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 14,044 | 14,783 | 15,522 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 4,933 | 4,933 | 4,933 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 18,977 | 19,716 | 20,455 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 4,444.4 | 4,444.4 | 4,444.4 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 4.27 | 4.44 | 4.60 | ||||
| FX Rate: CNY/CNY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 4.27 | 4.44 | 4.60 | 4.06 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 5.2% | 9.3% | 13.4% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 601333 | 601816 | 600125 | 601006 | YMM | 1213 | |
| Enterprise Value | 19,614 | 351,406 | 6,439 | 76,202 | 57,834 | 13,111 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 2,399 | 13,287 | 1,786 | 59,251 | 20,813 | 5,073 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 811 | 0 | 190 | 25,733 | 9,876 | 193 | |
| (-) Debt | (1,896) | (52,678) | (830) | (12,236) | (65) | (333) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 39 | (22,864) | (26) | (15,373) | (458) | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 20,967 | 289,151 | 7,559 | 133,576 | 88,000 | 18,044 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 7,083.5 | 48,925.7 | 1,305.5 | 20,147.2 | 1,045.9 | 4,444.4 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 2.96 | 5.91 | 5.79 | 6.63 | 84.14 | 4.06 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 7.23 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 2.96 | 5.91 | 5.79 | 6.63 | 11.63 | 4.06 | |
| Trading Currency | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | USD | CNY | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 7.23 | 1.00 | |