China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co Ltd

SZSE:001213

中國 / 工業 / 陸運

綜觀

股息

10 年 DCF EBITDA 退出價

股價

4.04 CNY

公允價值

4.74 CNY

Metrics	Range	Conclusion
Discount Rate	8.5% - 7.5%	8.0%
Terminal EBITDA Multiple	13.8x - 15.8x	14.8x
Fair Value	¥4.42 - ¥5.09	¥4.74
Upside	8.6% - 25.1%	16.6%

2.7%

Revenue 10y CAGR

12.6%

10y Avg EBITDA Margin

15.5%

Unlevered FCF 10y CAGR

10-Year DCF Model: EBITDA Exit

股價

4.04 CNY

公允價值

4.74 CNY

看漲

16.6%

Revenue and EBITDA

CapEx

Working Capital

D&A

Tax Rate

Discount Rate

Terminal Value


Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast

(CNY in millions)		Input Projections
Fiscal Years Ending	Dec-23	Dec-24	Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Dec-32	Dec-33

Revenue	10,682	11,483	11,885	12,122	12,365	12,612	12,864	13,122	13,384	13,652	13,925
% Growth	12.8%	7.5%	3.5%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%

EBITDA	1,293	1,443	1,493	1,523	1,553	1,584	1,616	1,649	1,681	1,715	1,749
% of Revenue	12.1%	12.6%	12.6%	12.6%	12.6%	12.6%	12.6%	12.6%	12.6%	12.6%	12.6%

支援算式

Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Discounting Periods

Discounting Factors

Calculation of Enterprise Value

Equity Waterfall

Historical Financials

Current Trading Multiples


Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Projected Unlevered Cash Flow
(CNY in millions)		Dec-24	Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Dec-32	Dec-33

EBITDA		1,443	1,493	1,523	1,553	1,584	1,616	1,649	1,681	1,715	1,749
Other Income / (Exp)		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D&A		(730)	(756)	(771)	(786)	(802)	(818)	(834)	(851)	(868)	(885)

EBIT		712	737	752	767	782	798	814	830	847	864
Pro forma Taxes		(178)	(184)	(188)	(192)	(196)	(200)	(204)	(208)	(212)	(216)
NOPAT	483	534	553	564	575	587	599	611	623	635	648

Capital Expenditures	(753)	(800)	(828)	(845)	(862)	(879)	(862)	(868)	(870)	(866)	(868)
NWC Investment	(234)	(154)	(77)	(46)	(47)	(47)	(48)	(49)	(50)	(51)	(52)
(+) D&A	649	730	756	771	786	802	818	834	851	868	885

Free Cash Flow	145	310	403	444	453	462	506	528	554	586	613
% Growth		114%	30%	10%	2%	2%	10%	4%	5%	6%	5%

載入錯誤

China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co Ltd

SZSE:001213

中國 / 工業 / 陸運

10 年 DCF EBITDA 退出價